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Predicting Personal Mobility with Individual and Group Travel Histories

Author

Listed:
  • Giusy Di Lorenzo

    (IBM Research, Ireland; and Senseable City Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, USA)

  • Jonathan Reades

    (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB)

  • Francesco Calabrese

    (IBM Research, Ireland; and Senseable City Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, USA)

  • Carlo Ratti

    (Senseable City Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, USA)

Abstract

Understanding and predicting human mobility is a crucial component of a range of administrative activities, from transportation planning to tourism and travel management. In this paper we propose a new approach that predicts the location of a person over time based on both individual and collective behaviors. The system draws on both previous trajectory histories and the features of the region—in terms of geography, land use, and points of interest—which might be ‘of interest’ to travellers. We test the effectiveness of our approach using a massive dataset of mobile phone location events compiled for the Boston metropolitan region, and experimental results suggest that the predictions are accurate to within 1.35 km and demonstrate the significant advantages of incorporating collective behavior into individual trip predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Giusy Di Lorenzo & Jonathan Reades & Francesco Calabrese & Carlo Ratti, 2012. "Predicting Personal Mobility with Individual and Group Travel Histories," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(5), pages 838-857, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:39:y:2012:i:5:p:838-857
    DOI: 10.1068/b37147
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Robert Schlich & Kay Axhausen, 2003. "Habitual travel behaviour: Evidence from a six-week travel diary," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 13-36, February.
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