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Predicting Neighborhood Decline within a Large Central City: An Application of Discriminant Analysis

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  • M S Fogarty

    (Department of Economics, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia 26506, USA)

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of discriminant analysis as an empirical technique for assisting the urban planner in predicting patterns of neighborhood change. A discriminant model estimated for ninety low-income census tracts within the city of Pittsburgh predicts 97% of upgrading income paths and 92% of downgrading paths over the period 1960 to 1970. Some form of the discriminant model would appear to be a useful guide to policymakers and a reasonable technique for limiting the areas of immediate policy concern.

Suggested Citation

  • M S Fogarty, 1977. "Predicting Neighborhood Decline within a Large Central City: An Application of Discriminant Analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 9(5), pages 579-584, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:9:y:1977:i:5:p:579-584
    DOI: 10.1068/a090579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & O'Regan, Katherine M., 2011. "How low income neighborhoods change: Entry, exit, and enhancement," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 89-97, March.
    2. Jasper Beekmans, 2011. "An indicator for decline of industrial estates," ERES eres2011_281, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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