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Disentangling the Brexit vote: The role of economic, social and cultural contexts in explaining the UK’s EU referendum vote

Author

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  • Maria Abreu

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UK; Pembroke College, University of Cambridge, UK)

  • Özge Öner

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UK; Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden; Centre for Entrepreneurship and Spatial Economics, Sweden)

Abstract

A large number of studies have analysed the role of individual and geographical determinants of voting behaviour in the context of the recent EU referendum in the UK, but several questions remain. A key unresolved issue is the extent of the interaction between individual voter characteristics and the geographical context in which they live, with some of the variance in voter preferences previously attributed to individual characteristics potentially being mediated by the geographical context. Space, and the people who live in it, are in continuous interaction, which requires a careful conceptual and empirical treatment of the issues of composition and sorting. We therefore ask to what extent individuals with very similar individual characteristics voted differently in different places. We use data from the British Election Study, along with a non-parametric matching approach, to analyse whether comparable individuals voted differently in areas with particular economic and cultural characteristics. We find that composition effects account for less than half of the observed constituency-level variation in the vote, while the remaining contextual effects are driven almost entirely by cultural factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Abreu & Özge Öner, 2020. "Disentangling the Brexit vote: The role of economic, social and cultural contexts in explaining the UK’s EU referendum vote," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1434-1456, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:52:y:2020:i:7:p:1434-1456
    DOI: 10.1177/0308518X20910752
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mitsch, Frieder & Lee, Neil & Ralph-Morrow, Elizabeth, 2021. "Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110497, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra, 2021. "Does Cohesion Policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 354-369, February.
    4. Daria Denti & Alessandra Faggian, 2021. "Where do angry birds tweet? Income inequality and online hate in Italy," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 483-506.
    5. Glückler Johannes & Wójcik Dariusz, 2023. "Seven Years of Brexit: Economic Geographies of Regional De- and Recoupling," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(2-3), pages 67-75, August.
    6. Michael Kenny & Davide Luca, 2020. "Populism Amidst Prosperity:The urban-rural polarisation of political disenchantment: An investigation of social and political attitudes in 30 European countries," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 161, European Institute, LSE.
    7. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    8. Diana Gutiérrez‐Posada & María Plotnikova & Fernando Rubiera‐Morollón, 2021. "“The grass is greener on the other side”: The relationship between the Brexit referendum results and spatial inequalities at the local level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(6), pages 1481-1500, December.
    9. Kenny, Michael & Luca, Davide, 2021. "The urban-rural polarisation of political disenchantment: an investigation of social and political attitudes in 30 European countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112683, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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