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Context and the Economic Vote: A Multilevel Analysis

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  • Duch, Raymond M.
  • Stevenson, Randy

Abstract

Voters use observed economic performance to infer the competence of incumbent politicians. These economic perceptions enter the voter's utility calculations modified by a weight that is minimized when the variance in exogenous shocks to the economy is very large relative to the variance in economic outcomes associated with the competence of politicians. Cross-national variations in the political and economic context systematically increase or undermine the voter's ability to ascertain the competency of incumbents. We test one hypothesis: As policy-making responsibility is shared more equally among parties, economic evaluations will be more important in the vote decision. We employ two multilevel modeling procedures for estimating the contextual variations in micro-level economic voting effects: a conventional pooled approach and a two-stage procedure. We compare the multivariate results of a pooled method with our two-stage estimation procedure and conclude that they are similar. Our empirical efforts use data from 163 national surveys from 18 countries over a 22-year period.

Suggested Citation

  • Duch, Raymond M. & Stevenson, Randy, 2005. "Context and the Economic Vote: A Multilevel Analysis," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 387-409.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:13:y:2005:i:04:p:387-409_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Reinermann, 2022. "Party competition and the structuring of party preferences by the left-right dimension," Rationality and Society, , vol. 34(2), pages 185-217, May.
    2. Denisova, Irina & Eller, Markus & Frye, Timothy & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2009. "Who Wants To Revise Privatization? The Complementarity of Market Skills and Institutions," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 284-304, May.
    3. Catherine E. de Vries, 2007. "Sleeping Giant: Fact or Fairytale?," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(3), pages 363-385, September.
    4. Maria Abreu & Özge Öner, 2020. "Disentangling the Brexit vote: The role of economic, social and cultural contexts in explaining the UK’s EU referendum vote," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1434-1456, October.
    5. Laron K. Williams, 2019. "Guns Yield Butter? An Exploration of Defense Spending Preferences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(5), pages 1193-1221, May.
    6. repec:gig:joupla:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:31-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:gig:joupla:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:53-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Salil D. Benegal, 2018. "The impact of unemployment and economic risk perceptions on attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 8(3), pages 300-311, September.
    9. Kai Arzheimer, 2009. "Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 259-275, April.

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