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Modelling National or Regional Grain Supply and Food Balance in China

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  • Jianfa Shen

    (Department of Geography and the Center for Environmental Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong)

Abstract

In this paper, explicit grain production and demand models were used to analyze changes in national and regional grain production in China over the period 1990–97 and the future grain supply and demand up to the year 2087. A decomposition approach was developed on the basis of the grain production model to estimate the impacts of various input factors on grain production in China. National grain production, demand, and import in the future were modelled. This modelling framework allows projections of the future food situation of China on the basis of various scenarios. The results are fairly transparent and can be traced to the conditions of input factors and the level of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfa Shen, 2000. "Modelling National or Regional Grain Supply and Food Balance in China," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(3), pages 539-557, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:539-557
    DOI: 10.1068/a3245
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Rosegrant, Mark W, 1999. "China's Food Economy to the Twenty-first Century: Supply, Demand, and Trade," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(4), pages 737-766, July.
    2. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1997. "The world food situation," Food policy reports 7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Huang,Yiping, 1998. "Agricultural Reform in China," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521620550, September.
    4. Feng Lu, 1998. "Grain versus food: A hidden issue in China's food policy debate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 1641-1652, September.
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