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Duration Dependence in Migration Behaviour: Cumulative Inertia versus Stochastic Change

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  • I R Gordon

    (Department of Geography, University of Reading, Reading RG6 2AB, England)

  • I Molho

    (Department of Economics, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, England)

Abstract

In this paper a new theoretical framework and supporting empirical evidence on the relationship between movement probabilities and length of stay are presented. Individuals' evaluations of the relative value of alternative locations are assumed to evolve stochastically, with a possible tendency either to cumulative inertia or to cumulative stress. In general this yields a nonmonotonic duration function, with probabilities of movement starting at zero, rising and then falling—a pattern consistent with either cumulative tendency, or neither. A version of the model fitted to data on household movement intentions, from the UK General Household Survey, confirms the hypothesised form of this function and indicates a dominance of cumulative stress over cumulative inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • I R Gordon & I Molho, 1995. "Duration Dependence in Migration Behaviour: Cumulative Inertia versus Stochastic Change," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 27(12), pages 1961-1975, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:27:y:1995:i:12:p:1961-1975
    DOI: 10.1068/a271961
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Morrison, 1967. "Duration of Residence and Prospective Migration: The Evaluation of a Stochastic Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 4(2), pages 553-561, June.
    2. Hughes, G A & McCormick, B, 1985. "Migration Intentions in the U.K.: Which Households Want to Migrate and Which Succeed?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 113-123, Supplemen.
    3. Hughes, Gordon & McCormick, Barry, 1981. "Do Council Housing Policies Reduce Migration between Regions?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(364), pages 919-937, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mika Haapanen & Hannu Tervo, 2006. "Migration Behaviour and Duration of Residence Spells of Graduating Students in Finland in 1987-2002," ERSA conference papers ersa06p379, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Fran�ois-Charles Wolff, 2015. "Do the Return Intentions of French Migrants Affect Their Transfer Behaviour?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(10), pages 1358-1373, October.
    3. Laetitia Duval & François-Charles Wolff, 2016. "Emigration intentions of Roma: evidence from Central and South-East Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 87-107, January.
    4. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
    5. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga, 2014. "Life (dis)satisfaction and the intention to migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 40-49.
    6. Augustin de Coulon & Dragos Radu & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2016. "Pane e Cioccolata: The Impact of Native Attitudes on Return Migration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 253-281, May.
    7. Fischer, Peter A. & Holm, Einar & Malmberg, Gunnar & Straubhaar, Thomas, 2000. "Why do people stay? Insider advantages and immobility," HWWA Discussion Papers 112, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    8. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    9. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2016. "Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States," Working Papers 2016-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    10. Mika Haapanen & Hannu Tervo, 2012. "Migration Of The Highly Educated: Evidence From Residence Spells Of University Graduates," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 587-605, October.
    11. Michèle Belot & John Ermisch, 2009. "Friendship ties and geographical mobility: evidence from Great Britain," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(2), pages 427-442, April.

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