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Approaches to Modelling Overdispersion in the Analysis of Migration

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  • P Congdon

    (Department of Geography, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, England)

Abstract

In this paper the modelling of overdispersion in generalised Poisson and multinomial models of migration flows and rates is considered, and its importance within the wider question of substantive model specification is shown. It is argued that substantive specification and the modelling of overdispersion are closely interrelated. Simplified ways of estimating the form of overdispersion—moments methods and pseudo-likelihood—are considered wherever possible. Overdispersion is set within the broader context of correlation effects which relate to migration—correlation across different destinations, between spatially adjacent origins and destinations, and between different time periods. The data used to illustrate the modelling development are drawn from the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys Longitudinal Study, the decennial Census, and the National Health Service Central Register.

Suggested Citation

  • P Congdon, 1993. "Approaches to Modelling Overdispersion in the Analysis of Migration," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(10), pages 1481-1510, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:25:y:1993:i:10:p:1481-1510
    DOI: 10.1068/a251481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Jackman & S Savouri, 1991. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows using NHS Central Register Data," CEP Discussion Papers dp0027, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    3. Stuart J. Pocock & Derek G. Cook & Shirley A. A. Beresford, 1981. "Regression of Area Mortality Rates on Expalanatory Variables: What Weighting is Appropriate?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 30(3), pages 286-295, November.
    4. Cushing, Brian J, 1989. "Use and Misuse of the Allocation Rate in Models of Population Migration," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 23(1), pages 51-58.
    5. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Devillanova & Walter García-Fontes, 2004. "Migration across Spanish provinces: evidence from the social security records (1978-1992)," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(3), pages 461-487, September.
    2. Ron Cheung, 2005. "The Effect of Property Tax Limitations on Residential Private Governments," Working Papers wp2005_05_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    3. Yongwan Chun, 2008. "Modeling network autocorrelation within migration flows by eigenvector spatial filtering," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 317-344, December.
    4. Adam Crymble & Adam Dennett & Tim Hitchcock, 2018. "Modelling regional imbalances in English plebeian migration to late eighteenth‐century London†," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(3), pages 747-771, August.

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