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The British gambler's fallacy

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  • George Papachristou

Abstract

People facing choices under uncertainty, and gamblers in particular, are often subject to statistical fallacies. This paper explores the hypothesis that if lotto players were subject to the 'gambler's fallacy', predictable fluctuations in the number of jackpots would occur. Evidence, based on a Poisson regression model in which the number of winning bets is conditional on the history of draws, indicates that number selection in the UK is only marginally affected by the history of draws.

Suggested Citation

  • George Papachristou, 2004. "The British gambler's fallacy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2073-2077.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:18:p:2073-2077
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000295629
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1991. "The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play," NBER Working Papers 3769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Patrick Roger & Marie-Helene Broihanne, 2007. "Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 645-662.
    3. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    4. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    5. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1109, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1039-1059 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    4. Jullien, Bruno & Salanié, Bernard, 2005. "Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors," IDEI Working Papers 178, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Brian A. Polin & Eyal Ben Isaac & Itzhak Aharon, 2021. "Patterns in manually selected numbers in the Israeli lottery," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1039-1059, July.
    6. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.

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