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Economic—Demographic Models for Forecasting Interregional Migration

Author

Listed:
  • D A Plane

    (Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA)

  • P A Rogerson

    (Departments of Civil Engineering and Geography, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60201, USA)

Abstract

A class of spatial economic–demographic forecasting models is proposed. The models combine elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models. A base-period probability structure is modified by the changing relative distribution of economic opportunity. Estimation issues are addressed, and an empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s is described. It is contended that the framework represents a merger of past demographic and economic modeling traditions in a spatial interaction framework.

Suggested Citation

  • D A Plane & P A Rogerson, 1985. "Economic—Demographic Models for Forecasting Interregional Migration," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(2), pages 185-198, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:17:y:1985:i:2:p:185-198
    DOI: 10.1068/a170185
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Charles Holt & Martin David, 1966. "The Concept of Job Vacancies in a Dynamic Theory of the Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement and Interpretation of Job Vacancies, pages 73-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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