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Spectral Analysis and Distributed Lags in Geographical Studies of Local Unemployment: 2. Distributed Lags

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  • R Dunn

    (Department of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, England)

Abstract

This is the second part of a two-part paper in which the related topics of spectral analysis and the identification and estimation of distributed-lag models between time series are discussed. This paper is mainly concerned with distributed-lag models, in particular the use of spectral estimators developed by Hannan. A number of previous studies have used the phase statistics from the cross-spectrum as an indication of lead/lag relations between unemployment series, but it is shown here that this is likely to lead to incorrect conclusions. As an empirical example, lead/lag relations between local unemployment in Severnside and the national series are investigated. The correspondence between time-domain (regression) and frequency-domain (spectral) methods of estimating relations between time series is also discussed, using empirical material from both parts of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • R Dunn, 1983. "Spectral Analysis and Distributed Lags in Geographical Studies of Local Unemployment: 2. Distributed Lags," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(8), pages 1043-1055, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:15:y:1983:i:8:p:1043-1055
    DOI: 10.1068/a151043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cargill, Thomas F & Meyer, Robert A, Jr, 1972. "A Spectral Approach to Estimating the Distributed Lag Relationship between Long and Short Term Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(2), pages 223-238, June.
    2. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
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