IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/engenv/v24y2013i3-4p455-496.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Scafetta

    (Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) Lab, Coronado, CA 92118, USA, & Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA)

Abstract

Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aerosol and greenhouse gases). However, current general circulation climate models, e.g. the CMIP5 GCMs, to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct the observed climatic oscillations. As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a 0.45 attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hind-casting the observed 1850–2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: (1) about 50–60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs; (2) a 2000–2040 approximately steady projected temperature; (3) a 2000–2100 projected warming ranging between 0.3°C and 1.6° C , which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of 1.1° C to 4.1° C ; (4) an equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO 2 doubling centered in 1.35°C and varying between 0.9°C and 2.0°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Scafetta, 2013. "Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms," Energy & Environment, , vol. 24(3-4), pages 455-496, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:3-4:p:455-496
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.455
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.455?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaufmann, R. K. & Kauppi, H. & Mann, M. L. & Stock, James H., 2011. "Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008," Scholarly Articles 29071926, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Mads Faurschou Knudsen & Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz & Bo Holm Jacobsen & Antoon Kuijpers, 2011. "Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, September.
    3. Paul Charbonneau, 2013. "The planetary hypothesis revived," Nature, Nature, vol. 493(7434), pages 613-614, January.
    4. Clark, William C. & Gleick, Peter H., 2010. "Climate Change and the Integrity of Science," Scholarly Articles 9795466, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    5. P. Foukal & C. Fröhlich & H. Spruit & T. M. L. Wigley, 2006. "Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 443(7108), pages 161-166, September.
    6. Anders Moberg & Dmitry M. Sonechkin & Karin Holmgren & Nina M. Datsenko & Wibjörn Karlén, 2005. "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7026), pages 613-617, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loehle, Craig, 2014. "A minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 276(C), pages 80-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian, Yuan & Scherer, Laura & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2020. "China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Alexey A. Lyubushin & Leonid B. Klyashtorin, 2012. "Short Term Global Dt Prediction Using (60–70)-Years Periodicity," Energy & Environment, , vol. 23(1), pages 75-85, January.
    3. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Peringer, Alexander & Gillet, François & Rosenthal, Gert & Stoicescu, Ioana & Pătru-Stupariu, Ileana & Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin & Buttler, Alexandre, 2016. "Landscape-scale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss management guidelines for mountain pasture-woodland habitat diversity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 330(C), pages 41-49.
    5. Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 361-383, May.
    6. Feng Shi & Quansheng Ge & Bao Yang & Jianping Li & Fengmei Yang & Fredrik Ljungqvist & Olga Solomina & Takeshi Nakatsuka & Ninglian Wang & Sen Zhao & Chenxi Xu & Keyan Fang & Masaki Sano & Guoqiang Ch, 2015. "A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 663-676, August.
    7. Song Song & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Ya'acov Ritov, 2010. "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series Modelling with Generalized Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Craig Loehle & J. Huston McCulloch, 2008. "Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies," Energy & Environment, , vol. 19(1), pages 93-100, January.
    9. Mirko Winkler & Martin Röösli & Martina Ragettli & Guéladio Cissé & Pie Müller & Jürg Utzinger & Laura Perez, 2015. "Mitigating and adapting to climate change: a call to public health professionals," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 60(6), pages 631-632, September.
    10. John Halley & Dimitris Kugiumtzis, 2011. "Nonparametric testing of variability and trend in some climatic records," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 549-568, December.
    11. Schulze, Kiowa Alraune & Rosenthal, Gert & Peringer, Alexander, 2018. "Intermediate foraging large herbivores maintain semi-open habitats in wilderness landscape simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 379(C), pages 10-21.
    12. Chen, Li & Gao, Jiti & Vahid, Farshid, 2022. "Global temperatures and greenhouse gases: A common features approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 240-254.
    13. O'Hara, Phillip Anthony, 2009. "Political economy of climate change, ecological destruction and uneven development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 223-234, December.
    14. Song Song & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Ya'acov Ritov, 2014. "Generalized dynamic semi‐parametric factor models for high‐dimensional non‐stationary time series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 17(2), pages 101-131, June.
    15. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
    16. Parker Albert & Ollier Clifford, 2021. "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is not collapsing," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 40(3), pages 163-167, September.
    17. Bruce E Kurtz, 2015. "The Effect of Natural Multidecadal Ocean Temperature Oscillations on Contiguous U.S. Regional Temperatures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    18. Luo Qin & Guangxin Liu & Xiangzhong Li & E. Chongyi & Jiang Li & Changrun Wu & Xin Guan & Yuan Wang, 2023. "A 1000-year hydroclimate record from the Asian summer monsoon-Westerlies transition zone in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-18, March.
    19. Dan Wang & Yan Liu & Yu Cheng, 2023. "Effects and Spatial Spillover of Manufacturing Agglomeration on Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Travaglini, Guido, 2011. "Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series," MPRA Paper 35565, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:3-4:p:455-496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.