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Extending Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting for NEMS

Author

Listed:
  • Christa D. Court
  • Randall W. Jackson
  • Amanda J. Harker Steele
  • Gavin Pickenpaugh
  • Peter Jarosi
  • Justin Adder
  • Charles Zelek

Abstract

To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energy-economy forecasts, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University (WVU)’s Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along derived forecast scenarios detailing a baseline of the U.S. ener-gy-economy and an alternative forecast on how power generation resources can meet future levels of energy demand to generate estimates of the impacts to gross domestic product, employment, and labor income. This manuscript provides an overview of the model design, assumptions, and standard outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Christa D. Court & Randall W. Jackson & Amanda J. Harker Steele & Gavin Pickenpaugh & Peter Jarosi & Justin Adder & Charles Zelek, 2022. "Extending Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting for NEMS," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(4), pages 251-272, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:4:p:251-272
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.4.ccou
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kenneth Gillingham & Pei Huang, 2019. "Is Abundant Natural Gas a Bridge to a Low-carbon Future or a Dead-end?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2), pages 1-26, March.
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