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Econometric Estimation of Spatial Patterns in Electricity Prices

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  • Stratford M. Douglas
  • Julia N. Popova

Abstract

Information about the spatial structure of the transmission grid is relevant to understanding and predicting electricity prices, but this information has not been incorporated into empirical models of electricity prices in the literature. We propose the use of spatial econometric panel methods, discuss their formal characteristics in the context of electricity price data, and provide an application to a panel of PJM price data. Our econometric model includes a simple representation of the transmission system, and provides information about the effect of system constraints on the extent of electricity market integration. Empirical results confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and illustrate their impact on estimation, forecasting, and interpolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stratford M. Douglas & Julia N. Popova, 2011. "Econometric Estimation of Spatial Patterns in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 32(2), pages 81-106, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:32:y:2011:i:2:p:81-106
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No2-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    2. Zarnikau, J. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K., 2020. "Determinants of the wholesale prices of energy and ancillary services in the U.S. Midcontinent electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    4. Eric Bowen & Donald J. Lacombe, 2017. "Spatial Dependence in State Renewable Policy: Effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Renewable Generation within NERC Regions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Wen, Le & Suomalainen, Kiti & Sharp, Basil & Yi, Ming & Sheng, Mingyue Selena, 2022. "Impact of wind-hydro dynamics on electricity price: A seasonal spatial econometric analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    6. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    7. Chi-Keung Woo & Ira Horowitz & Jay Zarnikau & Jack Moore & Brendan Schneiderman & Tony Ho & Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 29-57, July.
    8. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Adam E. Clements & A. Stan Hurn & Zili Li, 2017. "The Effect of Transmission Constraints on Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(4), pages 145-163, July.
    10. Girum Dagnachew Abate & Niels Haldrup, 2017. "Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    11. Lei Jiang & Minhe Ji, 2016. "China’s Energy Intensity, Determinants and Spatial Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-15, June.
    12. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    13. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    14. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    15. Tsai, Chen-Hao & Eryilmaz, Derya, 2018. "Effect of wind generation on ERCOT nodal prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 21-33.
    16. Eric Bowen & Donald J. Lacombe, 2015. "Spatial interaction of Renewable Portfolio Standards and their effect on renewable generation within NERC regions," Working Papers 15-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity prices; Spatial patterns; Electricity transmission; panel data; PJM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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