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Oil and Petroleum Product Armington Elasticities: A New-Geography-of-Trade Approach to Estimation

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  • Edward J. Balistreri
  • Ayed Al-Qahtani
  • Carol A. Dahl

Abstract

Exploiting the structural developments suggested by the geography-of-trade literature, we estimate the elasticity of substitution across regional varieties for six crude grades and seven refined products using fixed-effects gravity regressions. We use unique data, compiled by Al-Qahtani (2008), that include global coverage of bilateral trade and transport costs for the crude grades and refined products. We find that the point estimates of elasticities of substitution across import varieties exceed those commonly reported in the literature and those adopted in simulation analysis. Our estimates indicate that there may be far less hysteresis in the pattern of petroleum trade than previously forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward J. Balistreri & Ayed Al-Qahtani & Carol A. Dahl, 2010. "Oil and Petroleum Product Armington Elasticities: A New-Geography-of-Trade Approach to Estimation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(2), pages 167-180, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:31:y:2010:i:2:p:167-180
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574201031021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    2. Robert M. Stern & Jonathan Francis & Bruce Schumacher, 1976. "Price Elasticities in International Trade," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03137-5, October.
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    1. Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria & Böhringer, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas & Voigt, Sebastian, 2012. "The value-added of sectoral disaggregation: Implications on competitive consequences of climate change policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 127-142.
    2. Umed Temurshoev & Marian Mraz & Luis Delgado Sancho & Peter Eder, 2015. "EU Petroleum Refining Fitness Check: OURSE Modelling and Results," JRC Research Reports JRC96207, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Böhringer, Christoph & Bye, Brita & Fæhn, Taran & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2017. "Targeted carbon tariffs: Export response, leakage and welfare," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-73.
    4. Böhringer, Christoph & Bye, Brita & Fæhn, Taran & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2015. "Targeted carbon tariffs. Carbon leakage and welfare effects," Working Paper Series 08-2015, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    5. Edward J. Balistreri & Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Carbon policy and the structure of global trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 194-221, January.
    6. Christoph Böhringer & Brita Bye & Taran Fæhn & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2017. "Output-based rebating of carbon taxes in a neighbour's backyard: Competitiveness, leakage and welfare," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 426-455, May.
    7. Lisa Aspalter, 2016. "Estimating Industry-level Armington Elasticities For EMU Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp217, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "Subglobal carbon policy and the competitive selection of heterogeneous firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 190-197.
    9. Sören Prehn & Bernhard Brümmer & Stanley R. Thompson, 2015. "Payment decoupling and intra-European calf trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 42(4), pages 625-650.
    10. Christoph Böhringer & Brita Bye & Taran Fæhn & Rosendahl Knut Einar, 2014. "Output-based rebating of carbon taxes in the neighbor’s backyard," Working Papers V-382-15, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    11. Peter Öhlinger & Michael Irlacher & Jochen Güntner, 2024. "Not all oil types are alike in trade substitution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Hu, Jun & Zhang, Yujie & Wu, Peng & Li, Huijia, 2022. "An analysis of the global fuel-trading market based on the visibility graph approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Umed Temurshoev & Fréderic Lantz, 2016. "Long-term petroleum product supply analysis through a robust modelling approach," Working Papers 2016-003, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    14. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias," Working Papers IES 2019/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2019.
    15. Patrizio Lecca & Martin Christensen & Andrea Conte & Giovanni Mandras & Simone Salotti, 2020. "Upward pressure on wages and the interregional trade spillover effects under demand‐side shocks," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 165-182, February.
    16. Jochen Güntner & Michael Irlacher & Peter Öhlinger, 2023. "Not all oil types are alike," Economics working papers 2023-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    17. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 155-170.
    18. Aliénor Cameron & Marc Baudry, 2022. "The case for a Carbon Border Adjustment: Where do economists stand?," Policy Papers 2022.01, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    19. McCleery, Robert & DePaolis, Fernando, 2014. "So you want to build a trade model? Available resources and critical choices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 199-207.
    20. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Narayanan, Badri G., 2015. "Fossil fuel producing economies have greater potential for industrial interfuel substitution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 168-177.
    21. Aliénor Cameron & Marc Baudry, 2023. "The case for carbon leakage and border adjustments: where do economists stand?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 435-469, July.
    22. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Goods: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers 2019/12, Czech National Bank.

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