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Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error-Correction Approach

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  • Klaus Mohn

Abstract

High oil prices and gradual resource depletion have raised global concerns for security of energy supply. Successful exploration activity is a critical factor for future oil production. Based on standard neoclassical producer behavior and modern time series econometrics, this study reveals new insights into the process of oil and gas exploration. I find that reserve additions are enhanced by an increase in the oil price, due to responses both in effort and efficiency of exploration. Moreover, oil companies accept higher exploration risk in response to an oil price increase, implying lower success rates and higher expected discovery size.

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  • Klaus Mohn, 2008. "Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error-Correction Approach," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(4), pages 53-78, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:29:y:2008:i:4:p:53-78
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No4-3
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    1. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    3. Alexander Kemp & Sola Kasim, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Oil and Gas Exploration Development and Production in the UK Continental Shelf: A Systems Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 113-141.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petter Osmundsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Terje Skjerpen, 2012. "Understanding rig rates," Discussion Papers 696, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Osmundsen, Petter & Roll, Kristin Helen & Tveterås, Ragnar, 2010. "Faster Drilling with Expercience?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010/7, University of Stavanger.
    3. Dahl, Roy Endre & Lorentzen, Sindre & Oglend, Atle & Osmundsen, Petter, 2016. "Pro-Cyclical Petroleum Investments and Cost Overruns in Norway by Roy Endré Dahl, Sindre Lorentzen, Atle Oglend, and Petter Osmundsen," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/7, University of Stavanger.
    4. Khalifa, Ahmed & Caporin, Massimiliano & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "The relationship between oil prices and rig counts: The importance of lags," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 213-226.
    5. Pernille Parmer & Steinar Strøm & Helge Sandvig Thorsen & Inger Ubbe & Bjørnar Andreas Kvinge, 2018. "Investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf - An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7370, CESifo.
    6. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    7. Roy Endré Dahl & Petter Osmundsen, 2014. "Estimating Fluctuations in Oil and Gas Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 5011, CESifo.
    8. Skjerpen, Terje & Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Osmundsen, Petter, 2018. "Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-239.
    9. Mohn, Klaus, 2016. "Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality in Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 446-457.
    10. Dahl, Roy Endré & Lorentzen, Sindre & Oglend, Atle & Osmundsen, Petter, 2017. "Pro-cyclical petroleum investments and cost overruns in Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 68-78.
    11. Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2015. "Understanding rig rate formation in the Gulf of Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 430-439.
    12. Mohn, Klaus, 2015. "Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/2, University of Stavanger.
    13. Anthony Vashevko, 2019. "Does the Middle Conform or Compete? Quality Thresholds Predict the Locus of Innovation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 88-108, February.
    14. Ron Bird & Matthew Grosse & Danny Yeung, 2013. "The market response to exploration, resource and reserve announcements by mining companies: Australian data," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 311-331, August.
    15. Mohn, Klaus, 2009. "Elastic Oil. A primer on the economics of exploration and production," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/10, University of Stavanger.
    16. Osmundsen, Petter & Roll, Kristin Helen & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2012. "Drilling speed—the relevance of experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 786-794.
    17. Misund, Bard & Mohn, Klaus, 2014. "Exploration Risk in Oil & Gas Shareholder Returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/4, University of Stavanger.
    18. Johannes Mauritzen, 2017. "The Effect of Oil Prices on Field Production: Evidence from the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 124-144, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil exploration; industrial economics; econometrics; oil companies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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