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Implied Volatility of Oil Futures Options Surrounding OPEC Meetings

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  • Stephen M. Horan
  • Jeffrey H. Peterson
  • James Mahar

Abstract

This study examines implied volatility from options on crude oil futures surrounding OPEC meetings. Studies suggest that the implied volatility embedded in option prices should drift upward prior to scheduled information releases and drop afterward. As predicted, volatility drifts upward as the meeting approaches and drops by three percent after the first day of the meeting and by five percent over a five-day window period. Surprisingly, highly visible bi-annual conferences experience little drop in volatility. Rather, the most pronounced decline in volatility is associated with meetings of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which makes production recommendations to the larger conference. The results have implications for the debate about whether OPEC influences oil prices and provide an explanation for previously documented return anomalies in crude oil futures surrounding OPEC meetings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Horan & Jeffrey H. Peterson & James Mahar, 2004. "Implied Volatility of Oil Futures Options Surrounding OPEC Meetings," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(3), pages 103-125, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:25:y:2004:i:3:p:103-125
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No3-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Levy, Haim & Yoder, James A, 1993. "The Behavior of Option Implied Standard Deviations around Merger and Acquisition Announcements," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 261-272, May.
    3. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
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    Cited by:

    1. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).

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