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Business Cycles and the Oil Market

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  • Knut Anton Mork

Abstract

The last twenty years have seen a number of oil-price changes with macroeconomic effects. Oilprice increases spur inflation and produce recessions. Oil price declines dampen inflation, but do not necessarily boost real activity. The correlations can be traced back to World War II. The paper gives a survey of oil market events with macroeconomic consequences. It also discusses hypotheses about the nature of the link and efforts to incorporate oil in macroeconomic models. Business cycle research has recently advanced sectoral imbalance and uncertainty as leading hypotheses to explain the apparent asymmetry in the macroeconomic effects of oil price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Anton Mork, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Oil Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 15(1_suppl), pages 15-38, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:15:y:1994:i:1_suppl:p:15-38
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mork, Knut Anton, 1985. "Factor Substitution, Rational Expectations, and the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Employment and Investment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(3), pages 507-524, July.
    2. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
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