IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v5y2013i3p153-213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Africa 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Theodore Ahlers
  • Harinder S. Kohli
  • Anil Sood

Abstract

This article offers a vision of what Africa could be in 2050. In such a scenario, average per capita income would increase six-fold, an additional 1.4 billion Africans would join the middleclass, the number of poor would shrink to fewer than 50 million, and Africa’s share of global gross domestic product (GDP) would triple. For people, the biggest change would be better, less vulnerable jobs with higher productivity; for economies, dramatic productivity increases driven by private sector investment, diversification, and more competition; and for the continent, better integrated sub-regions and relations with the world based on trade and investment rather than aid. In the face of a multi-polar global economy, aging and population growth, increased competition for natural resources, rapid innovation, climate change, urbanization, and natural resource wealth, Africa needs to manage the risk of fragility and conflict, inequality, and the middle-income trap to achieve such a vision.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Ahlers & Harinder S. Kohli & Anil Sood, 2013. "Africa 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(3), pages 153-213, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:153-213
    DOI: 10.1177/0974910113505790
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0974910113505790
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0974910113505790?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6507.
    2. Harinder S. Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood, 2011. "Realizing the Asian Century: A Strategic Framework," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood (ed.), Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 63-70, Emerging Markets Forum.
    3. Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood & Haruhiko Kuroda, 2011. "Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century: Overview," Other Working Papers asia2050overview, Emerging Markets Forum.
    4. Duggan, Victor & Rahardja, Sjamsu & Varela, Gonzalo, 2013. "Service sector reform and manufacturing productivity : evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6349, The World Bank.
    5. Claudio M. Loser & Anil Sood, 2013. "Breaking Away from Mediocre Complacency to a Prosperous Future," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Claudio Loser & Anil Sood (ed.), Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence, edition 2, chapter 1, pages 25-73, Emerging Markets Forum.
    6. Jack Boorman & José Fajgenbaum & Hervé Ferhani & Manu Bhaskaran & Drew Arnold & Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2013. "The Centennial Resilience Index: Measuring Countries' Resilience to Shock," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(2), pages 57-98, May.
    7. World Bank, 2011. "Global Development Horizons 2011 : Multipolarity - The New Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2313.
    8. Harinder S. Kohli, 2011. "Realizing the Asian Century: Asia's Role in the World," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood (ed.), Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, edition 1, chapter 15, pages 275-281, Emerging Markets Forum.
    9. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    10. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    11. Jack Boorman & José Fajgenbaum & Hervé Ferhani & Manu Bhaskaran & Drew Arnold & Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2013. "The Centennial Resilience Index: Measuring Countries’ Resilience to Shock," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(2), pages 57-98, May.
    12. Arvis, Jean-François & Shepherd, Ben, 2011. "The air connectivity index : measuring integration in the global air transport network," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5722, The World Bank.
    13. Claudio Loser & José Fajgenbaum, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 155-195, May.
    14. Claudio Loser & Harinder Kohli & Héctor Aguilar Camin & Drew Arnold & Mahmood Ayub & José Fajgenbaum & Herve Fehrani & Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Anil Sood & Y. Aaron Szyf & Juan Pardinas & Manuel Molano, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All: Executive Report," Other Working Papers mexico2042executive, Emerging Markets Forum.
    15. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theodore Ahlers & Hiroshi Kato & Harinder S. Kohli & Callisto Madavo & Anil Sood (ed.), 2014. "Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number africa2050, May.
    2. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, May.
    3. Kumagai, Satoru, 2014. "The middle-income trap from the viewpoint of trade structures," IDE Discussion Papers 482, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    5. Vandana Chandra & Justin Yifu Lin & Yan Wang, 2013. "Leading Dragon Phenomenon: New Opportunities for Catch-up in Low-Income Countries," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 52-84, March.
    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2017. "China’s evolving role in global production networks: Implications for Trump’s trade war," Discussion Paper Series 34, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jun 2017.
    7. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West (ed.), 2012. "Regional Cooperation for Inclusive and Sustainable Development: South and South-West Asia Development Report 2012-2013," SSWA Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office, number brr4, May.
    8. Theodore Ahlers & John Nellis, 2016. "Building Effective Institutions—The Biggest Challenge," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 8(2), pages 247-270, May.
    9. Harinder Kohli & Claudio Loser & Anil Sood (ed.), 2013. "Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence — Second Edition," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 2, number latam2040v2, May.
    10. Shanawez Hossain & Tapan Sarker, 2013. "Resource constraints and Asia’s growth: regional cooperation for enhancing energy security," Chapters, in: Moazzem Hossain & Tapan Sarker & Malcolm McIntosh (ed.), The Asian Century, Sustainable Growth and Climate Change, chapter 3, pages 54-82, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Ifrim, Mihaela & Lazorec, Maria & Pintilescu, Carmen, 2022. "Assessing the economic resilience in central and eastern EU countries. A multidimensional approach," MPRA Paper 117912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:ilo:ilowps:486556 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Rajat M. Nag, 2012. "Transforming Asia: Realizing the Asian Century through Good Governance," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 1(1), pages 1-9, January.
    14. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2015. "Middle-income growth traps," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 641-660.
    15. Chatani, Kazutoshi. & Pedro, Oluwaseun Olufemi., 2014. "The role of central banks in meeting the development and employment challenges : the case of Mozambique," ILO Working Papers 994865563402676, International Labour Organization.
    16. Aaron Flaaen & Ejaz Ghani & Saurabh Mishra, 2013. "How to Avoid Middle-Income Traps?," World Bank Publications - Reports 22602, The World Bank Group.
    17. Aktoty Aitzhanova & Shigeo Katsu & Johannes F. Linn & Vladislav Yezhov (ed.), 2014. "Kazakhstan 2050: Toward a Modern Society for All," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number kazakh2050, May.
    18. Harinder Kohli & Anil Sood (ed.), 2010. "India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number india2039, May.
    19. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2017. "Caught In The Middle? The Economics Of Middle-Income Traps," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 771-791, July.
    20. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Otaviano Canuto & Michael Jelenic, 2012. "Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 98, pages 1-7, November.
    21. Rezaei Soufi, Hojat & Esfahanipour, Akbar & Akbarpour Shirazi, Mohsen, 2022. "A quantitative approach for analysis of macroeconomic resilience due to socio-economic shocks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:153-213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.