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The middle-income trap from the viewpoint of trade structures

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  • Kumagai, Satoru

Abstract

In this study, we try to elucidate the middle-income trap from the viewpoint of international trade. We conduct regression analyses on the relationship between income level and net export ratios for different types of goods for trapped and non-trapped samples separately. Our findings indicate that industrial upgrading appears to occur exactly as depicted by the flying-geese model for non-trapped countries while trapped countries tend to depend on the export of primary commodities, and industrialization appears to be driven by forward linkages to processed goods and a narrow base. The results of our analyses suggest that the middle-income trap is a form of Dutch disease or a 'resource curse' in the middle-income stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumagai, Satoru, 2014. "The middle-income trap from the viewpoint of trade structures," IDE Discussion Papers 482, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper482
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Aaron Flaaen & Ejaz Ghani & Saurabh Mishra, 2013. "How to Avoid Middle-Income Traps?," World Bank Publications - Reports 22602, The World Bank Group.
    6. Flaaen, Aaron & Ghani, Ejaz & Mishra, Saurabh, 2013. "How to avoid middle income traps ? evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6427, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Naoki Sekiguchi, 2022. "The evolution of non-OECD countries in the twenty-first century: developments in steel trade and the role of technology," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(1), pages 103-132, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myanmar; International trade; Economic development; Middle-income trap; Malaysia; Trade structure; Flying geese;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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