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The Early Warning System and policymaking in the European Union

Author

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  • Philippe van Gruisen

    (Department of Economics, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands)

  • Martijn Huysmans

Abstract

Does the Early Warning System alert the European Commission about the prospects of passing new policy? We present a model of European Union policymaking in which the Early Warning System plays an important signalling role. In our model, the Commission uses signals from the Early Warning System to update its belief about governments’ voting strategies in the Council. The Commission may then anticipate difficult negotiations by withdrawing its proposal early. We find empirical evidence for our theory: (1) reasoned opinions submitted by national parliaments strongly predict opposition from their governments and (2) the Commission is more likely to withdraw proposals that receive reasoned opinions, even in the absence of a yellow card. Our results run counter to the dominant view in the literature that the Early Warning System is not a very relevant aspect of EU decision-making. Instead, reasoned opinions constitute a clear signal that negotiations are more likely to fail.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe van Gruisen & Martijn Huysmans, 2020. "The Early Warning System and policymaking in the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(3), pages 451-473, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:21:y:2020:i:3:p:451-473
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116520923752
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Philippe van Gruisen, 2019. "The Trio Presidency and the Efficiency of Council Decision‐Making: An Empirical Study," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 692-709, July.
    3. Stefanie Bailer & Mikko Mattila & Gerald Schneider, 2015. "Money Makes the EU Go Round: The Objective Foundations of Conflict in the Council of Ministers," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 437-456, May.
    4. Sara Hagemann & Stefanie Bailer & Alexander Herzog, 2019. "Signals to Their Parliaments? Governments’ Use of Votes and Policy Statements in the EU Council," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 634-650, May.
    5. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    6. Putnam, Robert D., 1988. "Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 427-460, July.
    7. Crombez, Christophe & Hix, Simon, 2015. "Legislative Activity and Gridlock in the European Union," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 477-499, July.
    8. van Gruisen, Philippe & Vangerven, Pieterjan & Crombez, Christophe, 2019. "Voting Behavior in the Council of the European Union: The Effect of the Trio Presidency," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 489-504, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martijn Huysmans, 2021. "Tanja Börzel. 2021. Why Noncompliance: The Politics of Law in the European Union (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press)," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 943-946, October.
    2. van Gruisen, Philippe & Crombez, Christophe, 2021. "The Commission and the Council Presidency in the European Union: Strategic interactions and legislative powers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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