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Modelling Option Prices in Australia Using the Black-Scholes Model

Author

Listed:
  • R. L. Brown
  • T. J. Shevlin

    (Monash University. For helpful comments on an earlier draft we are grateful to Michael Brennan, Bob Officer, Graham Peirson, Norm Sinclair and an anonymous referee. All remaining errors are ours.)

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the ability of the Black-Scholes model to price options traded on the Australian market. The only variable in the Black-Scholes model which is likely to be subject to significant measurement error is the standard deviation rate. Two different methods of estimation are examined here: historically-based and implied standard deviations. Using historical estimates of the standard deviation rates resulted in significant underpricing by the model relative to the market. This underpricing was consistent across in/out and short/long options with the latter proving particularly troublesome for the model. As would be expected, the use of weighted implied standard deviation (lagged one month), greatly improves the pricing ability of the model. Mean pricing differences were small in absolute terms and very few remained statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • R. L. Brown & T. J. Shevlin, 1983. "Modelling Option Prices in Australia Using the Black-Scholes Model," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:8:y:1983:i:1:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1177/031289628300800101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    2. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    3. Patell, James M. & Wolfson, Mark A., 1979. "Anticipated information releases reflected in call option prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 117-140, August.
    4. Latane, Henry A & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1976. "Standard Deviations of Stock Price Ratios Implied in Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 369-381, May.
    5. Schmalensee, Richard & Trippi, Robert R, 1978. "Common Stock Volatility Expectations Implied by Option Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 129-147, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Howard Chan, 1997. "The effect of volatility estimates in the valuation of underwritten rights issues," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 473-480.

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