IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ausman/v34y2009i1p97-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Value of Alpha Forecasts in Portfolio Construction

Author

Listed:
  • Kingsley Fong

    (Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052.)

  • David R. Gallagher

    (McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, TX 78712 USA and the Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales. Sydney, NSW 2052.)

  • Adrian D. Lee

    (Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052.)

Abstract

This study examines a portfolio strategy which selects stocks using the undisclosed monthly holdings of Australian active fund managers. When considering a large range of strategies incorporating fund portfolio holdings information, the top performing strategies are robust to data snooping and are both statistically significant and economically significant when incorporating transaction costs. These strategies are short term in nature, with statistically significant performance lasting up to nine months. When we account for look-ahead bias in the formation of a strategy, we find statistically significant alpha when following the best performing strategy holding 20 stocks or more in the previous month.

Suggested Citation

  • Kingsley Fong & David R. Gallagher & Adrian D. Lee, 2009. "The Value of Alpha Forecasts in Portfolio Construction," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 34(1), pages 97-121, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:34:y:2009:i:1:p:97-121
    DOI: 10.1177/031289620903400106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/031289620903400106
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/031289620903400106?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wermers, Russ, 2000. "The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 343-368, September.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1655-1703 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    4. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    5. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock‐Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1695, August.
    6. Weimin Liu & Norman Strong, 2008. "Biases in Decomposing Holding-Period Portfolio Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2243-2274, September.
    7. Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-270, March.
    8. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    9. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    10. David R. Gallagher & Adrian Looi, 2006. "Trading behaviour and the performance of daily institutional trades," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(1), pages 125-147, March.
    11. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 389-432.
    12. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    13. Pinnuck, Matt, 2003. "An Examination of the Performance of the Trades and Stock Holdings of Fund Managers: Further Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 811-828, December.
    14. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1983-2011, August.
    15. Frank, Mary Margaret & Poterba, James M & Shackelford, Douglas A & Shoven, John B, 2004. "Copycat Funds: Information Disclosure Regulation and the Returns to Active Management in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 515-541, October.
    16. Louis K. C. Chan & Stephen G. Dimmock & Josef Lakonishok, 2009. "Benchmarking Money Manager Performance: Issues and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4553-4599, November.
    17. Simone Brands & Stephen J. Brown & David R. Gallagher, 2005. "Portfolio Concentration and Investment Manager Performance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 5(3‐4), pages 149-174, September.
    18. Kingsley Fong & David R. Gallagher & Adrian D. Lee, 2008. "Benchmarking benchmarks: measuring characteristic selectivity using portfolio holdings data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(5), pages 761-781, December.
    19. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
    20. Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks, 2006. "Changes in Institutional Ownership and Stock Returns: Assessment and Methodology," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2869-2910, November.
    21. Vikram Nanda, 2004. "Family Values and the Star Phenomenon: Strategies of Mutual Fund Families," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 667-698.
    22. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    23. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. "Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-1478, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott Bennett & David R. Gallagher & Graham Harman & Geoffrey J. Warren & Yuki Xi, 2018. "A new perspective on performance persistence: evidence using portfolio holdings," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(1), pages 91-125, March.
    2. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2011. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    3. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2013. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Scott Bennett & David R Gallagher & Graham Harman & Geoffrey J Warren & Lihui Xi, 2016. "Alpha generation in portfolio management: Long-run Australian equity fund evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 107-140, February.
    5. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2014. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2012. "Performance inconsistency in mutual funds: An investigation of window-dressing behavior," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Hung, Pi-Hsia & Lien, Donald & Kuo, Ming-Sin, 2020. "Window dressing in equity mutual funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 338-354.
    8. Pi‐Hsia Hung & Donald Lien & Yun‐Ju Chien, 2020. "Portfolio concentration and fund manager performance," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 423-451, July.
    9. Agarwal, Vikas & Mullally, Kevin & Tang, Yuehua & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "Mandatory portfolio disclosure, stock liquidity, and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 13-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    10. Wermers, Russ, 2006. "Performance evaluation with portfolio holdings information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-230, August.
    11. Hendriock, Mario, 2020. "Implied cost of capital and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 20-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. Vikas Agarwal & Kevin A. Mullally & Yuehua Tang & Baozhong Yang, 2015. "Mandatory Portfolio Disclosure, Stock Liquidity, and Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2733-2776, December.
    13. Carole Comerton‐Forde & David R. Gallagher & Joyce Lai & Terry Walter, 2011. "Broker recommendations and Australian small‐cap equity fund management," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(4), pages 893-922, December.
    14. Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2013. "When active fund managers deviate from their peers: Implications for fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1286-1305.
    15. Grønborg, Niels S. & Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2021. "Picking funds with confidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 1-28.
    16. Kingsley Fong & David R. Gallagher & Adrian D. Lee, 2008. "Benchmarking benchmarks: measuring characteristic selectivity using portfolio holdings data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(5), pages 761-781, December.
    17. Wermers, Russ & Yao, Tong & Zhao, Jane, 2007. "The investment value of mutual fund portfolio disclosure," CFR Working Papers 06-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Vikas Agarwal & Wei Jiang & Yuehua Tang & Baozhong Yang, 2013. "Uncovering Hedge Fund Skill from the Portfolio Holdings They Hide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 739-783, April.
    19. Hitesh Doshi & Redouane Elkamhi & Mikhail Simutin, 2015. "Managerial Activeness and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 156-184.
    20. Bai, John Jianqiu & Tang, Yuehua & Wan, Chi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2022. "Fund manager skill in an era of globalization: Offshore concentration and fund performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 18-40.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:34:y:2009:i:1:p:97-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.agsm.edu.au .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.