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The investment value of mutual fund portfolio disclosure

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  • Wermers, Russ
  • Yao, Tong
  • Zhao, Jane

Abstract

This paper shows that publicly disclosed mutual fund portfolio holdings contain valuable information about stock fundamentals and future returns. We develop a model to efficiently aggregate this information across actively-managed funds with differential skills to predict individual stock returns. This stock-level measure, which we call the "generalized-inverse alpha" (GIA), selects portfolios of stocks that exhibit much better performance relative to a "copycat strategy" that simply mimics the stockholdings of funds. We use the GIA model to study the source of fund managers' stock selection ability, and find that some managers have skills in uncovering information from fundamental research about the future earnings of stocks. Notably, the forecasting power of our measures is not subsumed by publicly-available quantitative predictors such as momentum, value, and earnings quality, nor is it subsumed by methods shown in past research to forecast stock returns using fund holdings or trades.
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Suggested Citation

  • Wermers, Russ & Yao, Tong & Zhao, Jane, 2007. "The investment value of mutual fund portfolio disclosure," CFR Working Papers 06-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0609
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1655-1703 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Randolph B. Cohen & Joshua D. Coval & Ľuboš Pástor, 2005. "Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1057-1096, June.
    5. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Jensen, Michael C, 1969. "Risk, The Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 167-247, April.
    7. Lu Zheng, 1999. "Is Money Smart? A Study of Mutual Fund Investors' Fund Selection Ability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 901-933, June.
    8. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock‐Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1695, August.
    9. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    10. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1992. "The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1977-1984, December.
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    14. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    15. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    16. Gordon J. Alexander & Gjergji Cici & Scott Gibson, 2007. "Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 125-150, January.
    17. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1983-2011, August.
    18. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
    19. Almazan, Andres & Brown, Keith C. & Carlson, Murray & Chapman, David A., 2004. "Why constrain your mutual fund manager?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 289-321, August.
    20. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Costs of Equity Capital and Model Mispricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 67-121, February.
    21. Frank, Mary Margaret & Poterba, James M & Shackelford, Douglas A & Shoven, John B, 2004. "Copycat Funds: Information Disclosure Regulation and the Returns to Active Management in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 515-541, October.
    22. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    23. Jones, Christopher S. & Shanken, Jay, 2005. "Mutual fund performance with learning across funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 507-552, December.
    24. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.
    25. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Lou, Dong, 2009. "A flow-based explanation for return predictability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29310, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Wahal, Sunil & Wang, Albert (Yan), 2011. "Competition among mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-59, January.
    3. Koijen, R.S.J., 2008. "Essays on asset pricing," Other publications TiSEM 75662994-29dc-4a83-a3ff-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Vikas Agarwal & Wei Jiang & Yuehua Tang & Baozhong Yang, 2013. "Uncovering Hedge Fund Skill from the Portfolio Holdings They Hide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 739-783, April.
    5. Seung Hee Choi & Maneesh Chhabria, 2012. "Effective delays in portfolio disclosure," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(2), pages 196-211, May.
    6. Vikas Agarwal & Kevin A. Mullally & Yuehua Tang & Baozhong Yang, 2015. "Mandatory Portfolio Disclosure, Stock Liquidity, and Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2733-2776, December.
    7. Choi, Nicole & Sias, Richard W., 2009. "Institutional industry herding," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 469-491, December.
    8. Gregory-Allen, Russell & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Thompson, Kathleen, 2019. "The impact of portfolio holdings disclosure on fund returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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