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Disentangling Size from Momentum in Australian Stock Returns

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  • Tim Brailsford

    (UQ Business School, The University of Queensland, QLD 4072.)

  • Michael A. O'Brien

    (UQ Business School, The University of Queensland, QLD 4072.)

Abstract

Prior evidence concerning momentum in Australian equity returns has produced inconsistent results. This study examines the interaction between momentum and firm size. Specifically, we report that momentum returns are significant only for larger portfolios, and that this finding explains the inconsistent results of prior research. We demonstrate that momentum is present only in the top 500 stocks, and is most economically significant among the mid-cap stocks, which we call a relative size effect. However, the momentum returns are primarily generated from poor performance of the loser portfolio rather than any superior performance of the winner portfolio. In a more formal examination of the impact of size, we find significant exposure to a size factor among the combinations of size and performance portfolios. The strongest exposure to the size factor is found in small loser portfolios which also have the strongest exposure to market risk. In explaining the source of momentum returns, our findings cast doubt on the practical implementation of a trading strategy, and we suggest that successful momentum trading strategies are likely to realize ‘paper’ profits rather than generate real investment returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Brailsford & Michael A. O'Brien, 2008. "Disentangling Size from Momentum in Australian Stock Returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 463-484, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:32:y:2008:i:3:p:463-484
    DOI: 10.1177/031289620803200305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clive Gaunt, 2004. "Size and book to market effects and the Fama French three factor asset pricing model: evidence from the Australian stockmarket," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(1), pages 27-44, March.
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    6. A. S. Hurn & V.Pavlov, 2008. "Momentum in Australian Stock Returns: An Update," NCER Working Paper Series 23, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 26 Feb 2008.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael A. O’Brien & Tim Brailsford & Clive Gaunt, 2010. "Interaction of size, book‐to‐market and momentum effects in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 197-219, March.
    2. Hurst, Gareth & Docherty, Paul, 2015. "Trend salience, investor behaviours and momentum profitability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 471-484.
    3. Yeng May Tan & Fan Fah Cheng, 2019. "Industry- and liquidity-based momentum in Australian equities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Daniel Chai & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Philip Inyeob Ji, 2017. "Momentum in weekly returns: the role of intermediate-horizon past performance," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 45-68, April.
    5. Minh Phuong Doan & Vitali Alexeev & Robert Brooks, 2016. "Concurrent momentum and contrarian strategies in the Australian stock market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 77-106, February.
    6. Paul Y Dou & David R Gallagher & David H Schneider, 2013. "Dissecting anomalies in the Australian stock market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 353-373, August.
    7. Zhong, Angel & Limkriangkrai, Manapon & Gray, Philip, 2014. "Anomalies, risk adjustment and seasonality: Australian evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-218.
    8. Liu, Ming & Liu, Qianqiu & Ma, Tongshu, 2011. "The 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 180-204, February.
    9. Jacquelyn E. Humphrey & Michael A. O’Brien, 2010. "Persistence and the four‐factor model in the Australian funds market: a note," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 103-119, March.
    10. Mardy Chiah & Daniel Chai & Angel Zhong & Song Li, 2016. "A Better Model? An Empirical Investigation of the Fama–French Five-factor Model in Australia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 595-638, December.
    11. Li, Bob & Stork, Thomas & Chai, Daniel & Ee, Mong Shan & Ang, Hong Nee, 2014. "Momentum effect in Australian equities: Revisit, armed with short-selling ban and risk factors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 19-31.
    12. Bruce J. Vanstone & Tom Smith & Tobias Hahn, 2017. "Australian momentum: performance, capacity and the GFC effect," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 261-287, March.

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    Keywords

    MOMENTUM; SIZE EFFECT;

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