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The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Poverty

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  • Marianne P. Bitler

Abstract

The 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) was a noticeable increase in government support to families with children: it provided more cash, it was not tied to work requirements, and the full amount of the potential benefit was paid by families even if the credit exceeded taxes owed (whereas previously, the maximum amount it could cover was less than the full amount if it exceeded taxes and receipt required earnings). I evaluate its effects on poverty, showing that the expansion contributed to a large decline in child poverty in 2021—and a subsequent rise in 2022, when the benefit expired. I also explain why we cannot yet determine a precise causal effect: we cannot yet account for the behavioral changes among beneficiaries that the expanded CTC may have provoked, and annual census poverty measures may not yet fully account for the tax credits that individuals receive. I discuss attendant issues in theoretical and technical detail, arguing that it will take time to establish a full accounting of the program’s effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne P. Bitler, 2023. "The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Poverty," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 75-89, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:710:y:2023:i:1:p:75-89
    DOI: 10.1177/00027162241260581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zachary Parolin & Megan Curran & Jordan Matsudaira & Jane Waldfogel & Christopher Wimer, 2022. "Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 1177-1203, September.
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    3. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Michael R. Strain, 2023. "Employment and Labor Supply Responses to the Child Tax Credit Expansion: Theory and Evidence," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 141-156, November.
    4. Jeehoon Han & Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2022. "Real-Time Poverty, Material Well-Being, and the Child Tax Credit," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 817-846.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elaine Maag & Nikhita Airi & Sophie Collyer, 2023. "Implications of Alternative Designs of the Child Tax Credit," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 209-228, November.
    2. Pamela Herd & Donald Moynihan, 2023. "Implementing the Expanded Child Tax Credit: What Worked, What Didn’t, and How to Move Forward," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 58-74, November.

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