IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/anname/v710y2023i1p75-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Poverty

Author

Listed:
  • Marianne P. Bitler

Abstract

The 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) was a noticeable increase in government support to families with children: it provided more cash, it was not tied to work requirements, and the full amount of the potential benefit was paid by families even if the credit exceeded taxes owed (whereas previously, the maximum amount it could cover was less than the full amount if it exceeded taxes and receipt required earnings). I evaluate its effects on poverty, showing that the expansion contributed to a large decline in child poverty in 2021—and a subsequent rise in 2022, when the benefit expired. I also explain why we cannot yet determine a precise causal effect: we cannot yet account for the behavioral changes among beneficiaries that the expanded CTC may have provoked, and annual census poverty measures may not yet fully account for the tax credits that individuals receive. I discuss attendant issues in theoretical and technical detail, arguing that it will take time to establish a full accounting of the program’s effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne P. Bitler, 2023. "The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Poverty," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 75-89, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:710:y:2023:i:1:p:75-89
    DOI: 10.1177/00027162241260581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00027162241260581
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00027162241260581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zachary Parolin & Megan Curran & Jordan Matsudaira & Jane Waldfogel & Christopher Wimer, 2022. "Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 1177-1203, September.
    2. Jacob Bastian, 2024. "How Would a Permanent 2021 Child Tax Credit Expansion Affect Poverty and Employment?," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 263-311.
    3. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Michael R. Strain, 2023. "Employment and Labor Supply Responses to the Child Tax Credit Expansion: Theory and Evidence," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 141-156, November.
    4. Jeehoon Han & Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2022. "Real-Time Poverty, Material Well-Being, and the Child Tax Credit," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 817-846.
    5. Zachary Parolin & Stefano Filauro, 2023. "The United States’ Record-Low Child Poverty Rate in International and Historical Perspective," LIS Working papers 873, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    6. Bruce D. Meyer & Wallace K. C. Mok & James X. Sullivan, 2015. "Household Surveys in Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 199-226, Fall.
    7. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2023. "Unemployment Insurance In Survey And Administrative Data," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 571-579, March.
    8. Christopher R. Bollinger & Barry T. Hirsch & Charles M. Hokayem & James P. Ziliak, 2019. "Trouble in the Tails? What We Know about Earnings Nonresponse 30 Years after Lillard, Smith, and Welch," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2143-2185.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elaine Maag & Nikhita Airi & Sophie Collyer, 2023. "Implications of Alternative Designs of the Child Tax Credit," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 209-228, November.
    2. Pamela Herd & Donald Moynihan, 2023. "Implementing the Expanded Child Tax Credit: What Worked, What Didn’t, and How to Move Forward," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 58-74, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bradley Hardy & Charles Hokayem, 2023. "The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Racial and Ethnic Inequalities in Well-Being," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 157-171, November.
    2. Timothy M. Smeeding, 2023. "What We Learned from the 2021 Child Tax Credit Expansion," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 229-244, November.
    3. Marianne Bitler & Jason Cook & Danea Horn & Nathan Seegert, 2022. "Incomplete program take-up during a crisis: evidence from the COVID-19 shock in one U.S. state," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1373-1394, December.
    4. Borgschulte, Mark & Cho, Heepyung & Lubotsky, Darren, 2022. "Partisanship and survey refusal," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 332-357.
    5. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2021. "An empirical total survey error decomposition using data combination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 286-305.
    6. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Michael R. Strain, 2023. "Employment and Labor Supply Responses to the Child Tax Credit Expansion: Theory and Evidence," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 710(1), pages 141-156, November.
    7. Adam Bee & Joshua Mitchell & Nikolas Mittag & Jonathan Rothbaum & Carl Sanders & Lawrence Schmidt & Matthew Unrath, 2023. "National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics - Version 1," Working Papers 23-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Roantree, Barra & Maître, Bertrand & McTague, Alyvia & Privalko, Ivan, 2021. "Poverty, income inequality and living standards in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT412.
    9. Martin Ravallion, 2022. "Missing Top Income Recipients," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(1), pages 205-222, March.
    10. Bradley L. Hardy & Elizabeth Krause & James P. Ziliak, 2024. "Income inequality in the United States, 1975–2022," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 155-171, June.
    11. Iv'an Fern'andez-Val & Franco Peracchi & Aico van Vuuren & Francis Vella, 2018. "Selection and the Distribution of Female Hourly Wages in the U.S," Papers 1901.00419, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    12. Sauval, Maria & Duncan, Greg J. & Gennetian, Lisa A. & Magnuson, Katherine A. & Fox, Nathan A. & Noble, Kimberly G. & Yoshikawa, Hirokazu, 2024. "Unconditional cash transfers and maternal employment: Evidence from the Baby’s First Years study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Marianne Bitler & Theodore F. Figinski, 2024. "Long-Run Effects of Food Assistance: Evidence from the Food Stamp Program and Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 33182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Robert A. Moffitt & James P. Ziliak, 2020. "COVID‐19 and the US Safety Net," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 515-548, September.
    15. Ercio Muñoz & Salvatore Morelli, 2021. "kmr: A command to correct survey weights for unit nonresponse using groups’ response rates," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(1), pages 206-219, March.
    16. Natasha V. Pilkauskas & Katherine Michelmore & Nicole Kovski & H. Luke Shaefer, 2024. "The expanded Child Tax Credit and economic wellbeing of low-income families," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1-35, December.
    17. Smith, V. Kerry, 2023. "Accounting for income inequality in benefit transfers: The importance of the income elasticity of WTP," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    18. Marko Ledić & Ivica Rubil & Ivica Urban, 2024. "Using tax records to correct for under‐representation of top income sources in surveys," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 521-541, December.
    19. Gopi Shah Goda & Emilie Jackson & Lauren Hersch Nicholas & Sarah See Stith, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 on older workers’ employment and Social Security spillovers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 813-846, April.
    20. James P. Ziliak, 2021. "Food Hardship during the COVID‐19 Pandemic and Great Recession," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 132-152, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:710:y:2023:i:1:p:75-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.