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Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU

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  • Luigi Bocola

    (Università degli Studi di Torino)

Abstract

This paper is an empirical study of the determinants of business-cycle comovement. Using a panel of European countries (1972-2004) it is found that bilateral trade intensity is a robust determinant of real comovement in Europe, this confirming the seminal study by Frankel and Rose (1998). It is also found that convergence in macroeconomic policies (especially fiscal policies) is associated to high degree of intra-european business-cycle correlation. Moreover, having controlled for policy convergence, the effect of bilateral trade on business cycle comovement weakens on average by a factor of 36%-33% with respect to that estimated according to Frankel and Rose’s econometric specification, this suggesting the potential endogeneity of the set of instrumental variables adopted by the two authors (Gruben, Koo and Millis, 2002).

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Bocola, 2006. "Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 25-62, November-.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:96:y:2006:i:6:p:25-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Nestor Azcona, 2019. "Specialization and Business Cycle Co-Movement in the Euro Area," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 193-204, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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