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Risks and Benefits for EAEU from Various Integration Scenarios in Asia-Pacific Region
[Риски И Выгоды Для Еаэс От Различных Сценариев Интеграции В Азиатско-Тихоокеанском Регионе]

Author

Listed:
  • Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Russian Foreign Trade Academy)

  • Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GLOBE v1 we investigate various scenarios of the integration in the Pacific Rim within the framework of the Trans­Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). For the considered scenarios we obtained forecasts of changes in GDP, aggregate exports and sectoral output, which are stable for changes in input parameters of the model. CGE­modelling of considered Free trade areas (FTA) was performed via mutual zeroing­out import tariffs for FTA­member countries. As tariff values applied in the model for countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) we used our calculations of trade value weighted averages for Common Customs Tariff rates of EAEU. It was shown that non­participation of the EAEU in the Pacific Rim’s integration has a very small positive impact on the economies of the EAEU countries. Meanwhile, participation is generally beneficial for all EAEU countries and it gives more or less noticeable gains in key macroeconomic indicators, though it creates risks for some sectors. Joining TPP will be the most beneficial for EAEU only under the condition of China’s participation in TPP. Due to the uncertainty of China’s joining TPP a good alternative for EAEU is its entry into RCEP. In the case of EAEU’s accession to the RCEP Russia’s real GDP is expected to grow in the long­run by 0,74% (about 10 billion US dollars). For some sectors the answer to the question whether in a particular sector will be observed growth or decline in output levels is determined by the scenario of integration — these sectors are at risk: chemical, rubber and plastic products; motor vehicles and parts; wood and paper products; textiles; wearing apparel; food production sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) & Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир), 2017. "Risks and Benefits for EAEU from Various Integration Scenarios in Asia-Pacific Region [Риски И Выгоды Для Еаэс От Различных Сценариев Интеграции В Азиатско-Тихоокеанском Регионе]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 72-85, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    2. Knobel, Alexander, 2011. "Estimation of import demand function in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 3-26.
    3. Burfisher,Mary E., 2017. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107584686, June.
    4. A. Knobel & B. Chokaev., 2014. "Possible Economic Effects of CU—EU Trade Agreement," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    5. Knobel, Alexander, 2016. "The influence of services trade liberalization on service flows and industry productivity in CIS countries and Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 75-99.
    6. Burfisher,Mary E., 2017. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107132207, June.
    7. McDonald, Scott & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "Deriving A Global Social Accounting Matrix From Gtap Versions 5 And 6 Data," Technical Papers 28716, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. McDonald, Scott & Karen Thierfelder, 2004. "Deriving a Global Social Accounting Matrix from GTAP Versions 5 and 6 Data," GTAP Technical Papers 1645, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    9. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2005. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521825252, January.
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    1. Zubarev Andrei & Shilov K. & Trunin Pavel & Bozhechkova Alexandra & Deryugin Alexander & Belev Sergey & Vedev Alexey & Drobyshevsky Sergey & Kaukin Andrey & Knobel Alexander & Miller Evgenia, 2020. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-economic Development," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 11, pages 1-38, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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