IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/v4y2007i1p77-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling The Economic Growth In Romania With The Solow Model

Author

Listed:
  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

In this study I make an estimation of the Solow model for the Romanian economy. Starting from the estimates of the parameters from other studies, I simulate the model both for the 1990-2004 period and in the long run. The study shows that the Solow model provides a good approximation of the dynamics of the Romanian economy for the 1990-2004 period, with respect to the dynamics of the aggregate GDP and to the ratios of the main macroeconomic variables, like production per worker, capital-output ratio or capital per worker. The simulation for the 2030 time horizon indicates a potential of growth of over 3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "Modelling The Economic Growth In Romania With The Solow Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 77-88, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:4:y:2007:i:1:p:77-88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_07/rjef1_07_6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Caraiani, Petre, 2004. "Estimating Total Factor Productivity In The Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(1), pages 97-108, February.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Roudoi, Andrei, 2003. "Factors And Mechanisms Of Economic Growth In Transition Economies Of Different Types (Case Of Romania)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 50-64, December.
    5. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Stanley Fischer & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market: Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 1998/052, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
    8. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
    9. Crafts, Nicholas & Kaiser, Kai, 2004. "Long-term growth prospects in transition economies: a reappraisal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-118, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 459-533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas & Kaiser, Kai, 2004. "Long-term growth prospects in transition economies: a reappraisal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-118, March.
    3. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    4. János Gács, 1999. "Teilprojekt 2: Macroeconomic Developments in the Candidate Countries with Respect to the Accession Process," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 13584.
    5. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2001. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," Transition Economics Series 20, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    6. Sarath Delpachitra & Pham Van Dai, 2012. "The Determinants of TFP Growth in Middle Income Economies in ASEAN: Implication of Financial Crises," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 63-88, June.
    7. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 090104, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    8. Kravtsova, Victoria & Radosevic, Slavo, 2012. "Are systems of innovation in Eastern Europe efficient?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 109-126.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    10. Lenkei, Balint & Mustafa, Ghulam & Vecchi, Michela, 2018. "Growth in emerging economies: Is there a role for education?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 240-253.
    11. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2008. "Modeling The Economic Growth In Romania. The Role Of Human Capital," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, September.
    12. Maté Fodor & Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Denis Rochat, 2019. "The Wavering Economic Thought About The Link Between Education And Growth," Working Papers CEB 19-006, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    14. M. Danquah & B. Ouattara, 2014. "Productivity Growth, Human Capital And Distance To Frontier In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 27-48, December.
    15. Sung Jin Kang, 2000. "Relative Backwardness and Technological Catching Up with Scale Effects," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0407, Econometric Society.
    16. Kaitila, Ville, 2004. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Discussion Papers 935, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    17. Arlene Garces-Ozanne, 2006. "A bounds test approach to the study of level relationships in a panel of high-performing Asian economies (hpaes)," Working Papers 0607, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    18. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.
    19. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    20. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; productivity; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P47 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Performance and Prospects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:4:y:2007:i:1:p:77-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.