IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0970.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distributive Effects of Balance-of-Payments Constraints: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Argentina (2004-2022)

Author

Listed:
  • Dvoskin, Ariel

    (Central Bank of Argentina and National Scientific and Technical Research Council, Argentina)

  • Feldman, Germán David

    (Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina)

  • Garegnani, María Lorena

    (Central Bank of Argentina and University of La Plata, Argentina)

Abstract

The paper studies the distributive effects of the external constraint in Argentina during the 2004-2022 period. We first develop a model inspired by the classical tradition - exogenous distribution - for a small (price taker) open economy with technical and financial dependencies under foreign exchange controls to examine the negative effects of exchange rate depreciations on real wage. Then, we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM): a) to show the long-run negative relationship between the real exchange rate and real wages in Argentina during the period under analysis; b) to identify the autonomous - or weakly exogenous - role played by the nominal exchange rate in the determination of income distribution; and, c) to capture the influence that, in the short-run, the financial exchange rate exerts on the official exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Dvoskin, Ariel & Feldman, Germán David & Garegnani, María Lorena, 2024. "Distributive Effects of Balance-of-Payments Constraints: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Argentina (2004-2022)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(2), pages 233-264.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iei1946.it/article/pdf/download/1009/distributive-effects-of-balance-of-payments-constraints-a-theoretical-and-empirical-analysis-of-argentina-2004-2022
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Montes Rojas Gabriel & Dvoskin Ariel & Feldman Germán, 2023. "Exchange-Rate Regime And Sectorial Profitability In A Small Open Economy: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of Argentina (2016-2023)," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4673, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    2. Ariel Dvoskin & Germán David Feldman & Guido Ianni, 2020. "On the role of the exchange rate as a tool for industrial competitiveness," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 40(2), pages 310-331.
    3. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "The role of money as an important pillar for monetary policy: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Ricardo Bebczuk & Maria Lorena Garegnani, 2012. "Real State as Housing and as Financial Investment: A First Assessment for Argentina," Department of Economics, Working Papers 095, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    6. Erick Lahura, 2017. "Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy in Peru," BCAM Working Papers 1704, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    7. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2023. "Energy price volatility affects decisions to purchase energy using capital: Motor vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Andreas Benedictow & Pål Boug, 2013. "Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 757-788, October.
    9. Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David J. & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Cointegration Analysis of Regional House Prices in U.S," 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48138, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    10. Neil Ericsson & Erica Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 247-258, August.
    11. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan’s business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Yuhua Cui, 2010. "US–Euro Area Monetary Policy Interdependence: New Evidence from Taylor Rule‐based VECMs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 778-797, May.
    13. Bjerregaard, Casper & Møller, Niels Framroze, 2022. "The influence of electricity prices on saving electricity in production: Automated multivariate time-series analyses for 99 Danish trades and industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    14. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2018. "A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1271-1289, November.
    16. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2016. "Modelling OPEC behaviour. Theory and evidence," Discussion Papers 843, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    18. Carlomagno, Guillermo, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    19. Lahura, Erick, 2017. "El efecto traspaso de la tasa de interés de política monetaria en Perú: evidencia reciente," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 33, pages 9-27.
    20. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2014. "Macro effects of capital requirements and macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-93.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; External Constraint; Income Distribution; Small Open Economy; Vector Error Correction Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.