Assessing the Socio-Economic and Political Outcomes of the Arab Spring in Arab League Countries

This paper uses the difference-in-means statistical approach to assess the socio-economic and political outcomes of the Arab Spring uprisings in 16 countries in the Arab League that experienced the region-wide protests. The main research question is: Did the Arab Spring uprisings and protests achieve the desired socio-economic and political outcomes? To answer this question, we use six Worldwide Governance Indicators: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption to assess whether positive or negative changes occurred in 16 countries in the Arab League after the uprisings and protests. Our empirical results revealed that statistically significant minor improvements in governance indicators occurred in 11 cases: five in Iraq, three in Algeria, one each in Djibouti, Sudan, and Tunisia. In contrast, we found that statistically significant negative changes occurred in 58 cases in which the governance indicators worsened: six each in Kuwait, Libya, and Syria; five each in Bahrain and Yemen; four each in Egypt, Lebanon, Mauritania, Oman, Sudan, and Tunisia; three in Jordan; two in Djibouti; and one in Algeria. In addition, the governance indicators remained unchanged in 27 cases: six in Morocco; three each in Djibouti, and Jordan; two each in Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Mauritania, and Oman; and one each in Bahrain, Iraq, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen. Interpretatively, the Arab Spring uprisings and protests worsened the governance indicators in almost all countries in the sample, especially in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen where the protests led to the ouster of their autocratic leaders. Intuitively, one can attribute the negative changes and outcomes to the ongoing governance structures in Arab League countries where uprisings and protests tend to produce leadership changes from the same pool of inept mediocre leaders. Una valutazione sugli effetti socioeconomici e politici delle primavere arabe nei paesi del nord Africa Questo articolo utilizza l’approccio della differenza tra le medie per valutare i risultati socioeconomici e politici delle primavere arabe in 16 paesi della Lega araba nei quali queste proteste hanno avuto luogo estensivamente. La prima domanda è: le primavere arabe e le proteste hanno raggiunto gli esiti socioeconomici e politici desiderati? (per continuare a leggere il Riassunto scaricare il file Pfd)