IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/buecrj/0327.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing Multi Bubbles for Commodity Derivative Markets: A Study on MCX

Author

Listed:
  • Koy, Ayben

    (Istanbul Commerce University)

Abstract

Due to their volatility differences, yield differences and low correlations with equity markets, metal futures are held for diversification in the international investors’ portfolios. Beginning with dot.com bubble and following global crisis, the mutual movement of equity markets caused investors to canalize alternative investment vehicles. The study aims to investigate if there are bubbles in metal futures in The Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) related the period beginning from January 2010 to August 2017 for copper, lead, nickel and zinc; and March 2010 to August 2017 for aluminum in a weekly data range. Using Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller (SADF) and Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller (GSADF) tests, no evidence on bubble could be found in any metal market in the used MCX sample. The precious metal markets are out of the sample because of their relatively high volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Koy, Ayben, 2018. "Testing Multi Bubbles for Commodity Derivative Markets: A Study on MCX," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 291-299, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.berjournal.com/testing-multi-bubbles-for-commodity-derivative-markets-a-study-on-mcx
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Escobari, Diego & Jafarinejad, Mohammad, 2016. "Date stamping bubbles in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-230.
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    4. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2013. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar exchange rate? New evidence from sequential ADF tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 350-353.
    5. Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.
    6. Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    9. Dirk G Baur & Kristoffer Glover, 2012. "A Gold Bubble?," Working Paper Series 175, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. KORKMAZ, Özge & ERER, Elif & ERER, Deniz, 2016. "The Factors Affecting Credit Bubbles: The Case Of Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(1), pages 37-53.
    11. Jeanne Diesteldorf & Sarah Meyer & Jan Voelzke, 2016. "New evidence for explosive behavior of commodity prices," CQE Working Papers 5016, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    12. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    13. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Kai-Hua & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Dumitrescu–Peculea, Adelina, 2017. "Do iron ore price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 340-346.
    14. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    16. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
    17. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
    18. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    19. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    20. Luciano Gutierrez, 2013. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity markets-super- †," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(2), pages 217-238, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    2. Skrobotov Anton, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles: a review," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Hao, Lin-Na, 2019. "Are there periodically collapsing bubble behaviours in the global coffee market?," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 59(1), July.
    4. Ayben Koy, 2022. "Regime Switching Mechanism during Energy Futures Price Bubbles," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 373-382.
    5. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    6. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    7. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    8. Wei Long & Dingding Li & Qi Li, 2016. "Testing explosive behavior in the gold market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1151-1164, November.
    9. Mohamed Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2014. "Diversification benefits and strategic portfolio allocation across asset classes: The case of the US markets," Working Papers 2014-294, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    10. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    11. Khan, Khalid & Derindere Köseoğlu, Sinem, 2020. "Is palladium price in bubble?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    13. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    14. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    15. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    16. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.
    17. Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 317-334.
    18. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sandoval Junior, Leonidas & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Information diffusion, cluster formation and entropy-based network dynamics in equity and commodity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 945-961.
    19. E.M. Afsal & Mohammad Imdadul Haque, 2016. "Market Interactions in Gold and Stock Markets: Evidences from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1025-1034.
    20. Liu, Pan & Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2021. "Fair-weather Friends? Sector-specific volatility connectedness and transmission," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 712-736.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Commodity Market; Metal Market; SADF; GSADF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adem Anbar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiulutr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.