IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v68y2020ics030142072030194x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is palladium price in bubble?

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, Khalid
  • Derindere Köseoğlu, Sinem

Abstract

This paper examines whether the palladium (PAL) prices show multiple bubbles by using the Generalized Supremum ADF test for the period 1994:01–2020:01. It is regarded as a pertinent procedure to observe the emergence and termination of multiple bubbles. The results show the emergence of four bubbles for the periods 1997–1998, 1999–2001, 2011 and 2019–2020. Therefore, PAL prices deviate from its fundamental value during 1994–2020 four times. This indicates that PAL prices include fundamental and bubble elements. The emergence and termination of bubbles are generally related to particular events. The first price bubble was led by the switchover of the automakers from the platinum to PAL and supply interruption by Russia. The second PAL price bubble took place due to the supply disruption by Russia, demand increase due to technology boom and usage of PAL as collateral against the international loans. Geopolitical tension rising from the largest producer of PAL, from Russia and South Africa, leads to the next PAL prices bubble. Finally, the main driver of the last bubble includes supply deficit, low production, and tight environmental regulations. The appropriate policies required to implement to reduce tragic results when the price bubbles burst. Moreover, the causes and effects can be scrutinized by considering the time period and dates of PAL price bubbles and measures can be taken to prevent the bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Khalid & Derindere Köseoğlu, Sinem, 2020. "Is palladium price in bubble?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:68:y:2020:i:c:s030142072030194x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142072030194X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101780?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Xin Li & Chi-Wei Su & Meng Qin & Fahai Zhao, 2020. "Testing for Bubbles in the Chinese Art Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440199, January.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Zhu, Haotian & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    7. Hans Lind, 2009. "Price bubbles in housing markets," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(1), pages 78-90, March.
    8. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Kai-Hua & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Dumitrescu–Peculea, Adelina, 2017. "Do iron ore price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 340-346.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig & Whitelaw, Robert F., 1998. "The Econometrics Of Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 559-562, December.
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    11. István Ábel & Pierre L. Siklos & István P. Székely, 1998. "Money and Finance in the Transition to a Market Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 830.
    12. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    13. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    14. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    15. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    16. Chi-Wei Su & Kai-Hua Wang & Qi Shao & Ran Tao, 2019. "Are there bubbles in the shipping freight market?," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 818-830, October.
    17. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    18. Chen, Mei-Hsiu, 2010. "Understanding world metals prices--Returns, volatility and diversification," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 127-140, September.
    19. Xi-Xi Zhang & Lu Liu & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ & Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan, 2019. "Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets of China," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-7, December.
    20. Kai-Hua Wang & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Lin-Na Hao, 2020. "Are there periodically collapsing bubble behaviours in the global coffee market?," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 65-77, January.
    21. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Sentiment and asset price bubble in the precious metals markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 106-111.
    22. Luciano Gutierrez, 2013. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity markets-super- †," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(2), pages 217-238, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    2. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi Wei & Khurshid, Adnan, 2022. "Do booms and busts identify bubbles in energy prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Cheng, Sheng & Zhang, Zongyou & Cao, Yan, 2022. "Can precious metals hedge geopolitical risk? Fresh sight using wavelet coherence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Potrykus, Marcin, 2022. "Diamond investments – Is the market free from multiple price bubbles?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    7. Potrykus, Marcin, 2023. "Price bubbles in commodity market – A single time series and panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 110-117.
    8. Sinem Derindere Köseoğlu, 2023. "Understanding Systemic Risk Dynamics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Turkish Banking System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, September.
    9. Wahab, Bashir A. & Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2021. "Analysis of major properties of metal prices using new methods: Structural breaks, non-linearity, stationarity and bubbles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi-Wei & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2021. "Do multiple bubbles exist in coal price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Tsangyao & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Policy-driven or market-driven? Evidence from steam coal price bubbles in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Xiao Xuan & Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Adnan Khurshid, 2021. "Will COVID-19 Threaten the Survival of the Airline Industry?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi-Wei & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2021. "Do multiple bubbles exist in coal price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    3. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    4. Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Adnan Khurshid & Muhammad Umar, 2022. "Are there bubbles in the vanilla price?," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2021. "Do crude oil price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Hao, Lin-Na, 2019. "Are there periodically collapsing bubble behaviours in the global coffee market?," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 59(1), July.
    7. Wahab, Bashir A. & Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2021. "Analysis of major properties of metal prices using new methods: Structural breaks, non-linearity, stationarity and bubbles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Ozgur, Onder & Yilanci, Veli & Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil, 2021. "Detecting speculative bubbles in metal prices: Evidence from GSADF test and machine learning approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Kai-Hua & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Dumitrescu–Peculea, Adelina, 2017. "Do iron ore price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 340-346.
    10. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2020. "Chinese renewable energy industries’ boom and recession: Evidence from bubble detection procedure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski, 2021. "Testing Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: Evidence from Different Polish Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, September.
    12. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    13. Ayben Koy, 2022. "Regime Switching Mechanism during Energy Futures Price Bubbles," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 373-382.
    14. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    15. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    16. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    18. Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
    19. Koy, Ayben, 2018. "Testing Multi Bubbles for Commodity Derivative Markets: A Study on MCX," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 291-299, April.
    20. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Tsangyao & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Policy-driven or market-driven? Evidence from steam coal price bubbles in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Palladium price bubble; Generalized supremum ADF; Precious metals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:68:y:2020:i:c:s030142072030194x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.