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Using spatial econometric models for regional unemployment forecasting

Author

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  • Semerikova, Elena

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Demidova, Olga

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We consider forecasting unemployment in Russian and German region with the help of econometric panel data models. Using regional data from 2005 till 2012 we show that spatial panel data models perform better in terms of forecasting accuracy than other models (on average and at least for some distinct regions) such as non-spatial panel data models, pooled OLS, models without exploratory variables and naive forecasts (average value for one or several previous periods).

Suggested Citation

  • Semerikova, Elena & Demidova, Olga, 2016. "Using spatial econometric models for regional unemployment forecasting," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 29-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0296
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. M. E. Baskakova & V. N. Baskakov & E. A. Yanenko, 2022. "Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 45-54, February.
    2. Aistov, Andrey & Nikolaeva, Tatiana, 2019. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 5-24.
    3. Natalia Larionova & Julia Varlamova & Julia Kolesnikova, 2021. "Does Digitalization Reduce Electricity Consumption? Evidence from Spatial Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 413-419.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial panel data models; prediction; regional unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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