IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconometric modeling of Russian and Armenian economies. II. Aggregated macroeconometric models of the national economies of Russia and Armenia

Author

Listed:
  • Aivazian, Sergey

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russia)

  • Brodsky , Boris

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russia)

  • Sandoyan, Edward

    (Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) university. Erevan, Armenia)

  • Voskanyan, Mariam

    (Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) university. Erevan, Armenia)

  • Manukyan, David

    (Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) university. Erevan, Armenia)

Abstract

This study is aimed at creation of the macroeconometric models of the key macro-indices of the national economics of Russia and Armenia: GDP, inflation, export and import, the average wage, etc. The choice of predictors of these models is made according to findings from theoretical models developed in the first part of this paper. Methodology of econometric research for non-stationary time series (the majority of macroindicators of these models) is based upon the two-stage procedure of cointegration analysis proposed by Engle and Granger (1987). At the first stage we build long-run cointegration equations aimed at description of stable and long-lasting macrofactors of macroeconomic policy and external trade which influence the dynamics of key macroeconomic indices. At the second stage we build error correction models for taking into account short run factors (seasonality, etc.) influencing these dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Aivazian, Sergey & Brodsky , Boris & Sandoyan, Edward & Voskanyan, Mariam & Manukyan, David, 2013. "Macroeconometric modeling of Russian and Armenian economies. II. Aggregated macroeconometric models of the national economies of Russia and Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 7-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2013_3_03-31.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    2. Aivazian, Sergei & Brodsky, Boris, 2006. "Macroeconometric modeling: modern trends, problems, an example of the econometric model of the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 2(2), pages 85-111.
    3. Aivazian, Sergey & Brodsky, Boris & Sandoyan, Edward & Voskanyan, Mariam & Manukyan, David, 2013. "Macroeconometric modeling of the Russian and Armenian economy. I. Peculiarities of macroeconomic situation and theoretical description of dynamic models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 30(2), pages 3-25.
    4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fokin, Nikita & Polbin, Andrey, 2019. "A Bivariate Forecasting Model For Russian GDP Under Structural Changes In Monetary Policy and Long-Term Growth," MPRA Paper 95306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
    2. Gollagari Ramakrishna & Berhanu Asefa Gizaw & Ch. Paramaiah & Robinson Joseph & Sania Khan, 2023. "Import Tariff Reduction and Fiscal Sustainability: A Macro-Econometric Modelling for Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей), 2014. "The theoretical interpretation of the effect of oil prices on economic growth in modern Russia [Теоретическая Интерпретация Влияния Нефтяных Цен На Экономический Рост В Современной России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 150-171, October.
    4. Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatskiy, Alexander & Brodsky, Boris, 2014. "Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 32-60.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    2. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    3. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    6. Min, Chung-ki, 1998. "A Gibbs sampling approach to estimation and prediction of time-varying-parameter models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 171-194, April.
    7. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    8. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2004. "Tijuana's Dynamic Unemployment and Output Growth," Labor and Demography 0401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
    10. Fiteni, Inmaculada, 2004. "[tau]-estimators of regression models with structural change of unknown location," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 19-44, March.
    11. Werner Ploberger & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Rissanen's Theorem and Econometric Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1197, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    13. Antonio E. Noriega & Araceli Ramírez-Zamora, 1999. "Unit roots and multiple structural breaks in real output," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 163-188.
    14. Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Gómez-Zaldívar Manuel, 2011. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend When There is Evidence of Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, January.
    15. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun & Khayereddine Salim Adda & Asma Hadjira Sebbane, 2021. "Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Michael J. Dueker & Apostolos Serletis, 2000. "Do real exchange rates have autoregressive unit roots? a test under the alternative of long memory and breaks," Working Papers 2000-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. EL BOUHADI, Hamid & OUAHID, Driss, 2014. "Datation des changements structurels au sein d’une chronique : le cas des séries macroéconomiques marocaines [Dating structural changes in time series : the case of the Moroccan macroeconomic serie," MPRA Paper 68168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    20. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    national economy; econometrics; system of simultaneous equations; GDP; investment; CPI; inflation; export; import; real wage; time series; co-integration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.