IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/111685.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini
[Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]

Author

Listed:
  • Eryilmaz, Unal

Abstract

The central bank, whose main objective of monetary policies is to control inflation, can intervene in total expenditures on goods and services in the economy by affecting the growth rate of money and credit supply. In this study, it is aimed to examine the ex-post prediction of the real M2 series, an aggregate of money supply, which is both an intermediate target and an information variable for the Central Bank, and also the relationship between Real M2 and Industrial Production. In this framework, various prediction models were formed with time series analysis and the results obtained from these models were discussed. Para politikalarının temel amacı enflasyonu kontrol etmek olan merkez bankası, para ve kredi arzının büyüme oranını etkileyerek, ekonomideki mal ve hizmetlere yapılan toplam harcamalara müdahale edebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Merkez Bankası açısından hem bir ara hedef hem de bir bilgi değişkeni olan para arzı toplamlarından reel M2 serisinin ex-post öngörüsü ve ayrıca Reel M2 ile Sanayi Üretimi arasındaki ilişkini incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, zaman serisi analizi ile bazı öngörü modelleri oluşturularak söz konusu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlar tartışılmıştır.

Suggested Citation

  • Eryilmaz, Unal, 2021. "Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini [Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions]," MPRA Paper 111685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111685/1/MPRA_paper_111685.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asako, Kazumi & Wagner, Helmut, 1992. "Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Supply Targeting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 167-187, May.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Peter Stemp, 1993. "Optimal money supply rules under asymmetric objective criteria," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 215-232, October.
    4. Ryuzo Miyao, 2005. "Use Of The Money Supply In The Conduct Of Japan'S Monetary Policy: Re‐Examining The Time‐Series Evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 165-187, June.
    5. Brooks,Chris & Tsolacos,Sotiris, 2010. "Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521873390, September.
    6. Lane, Timothy D, 1985. "The Rationale for Money-Supply Targets: A Survey," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 53(2), pages 179-207, June.
    7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
    8. Engle, Robert F., 1984. "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 775-826, Elsevier.
    9. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
    10. Chih‐Hsiang Chang & Kam C. Chan & Hung‐Gay Fung, 2009. "Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 35-44, March.
    11. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    13. Mercenier, Jean & Sekkat, Khalid, 1988. "Money Stock Targeting and Money Supply: An Intertemporal Optimization Approach (with an Application to Canada)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 215-228, July-Sept.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2003_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Chappell, D & Peel, D A, 1979. "On the Dynamic Stability of Monetary Models When the Money Supply is Endogenous," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 47(4), pages 349-358, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    3. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Structural breaks, ARIMA model and Finnish inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 203-230.
    4. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    5. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González-Martínez, 2015. "Residential Construction Activity in OECD Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(4), pages 451-474, July.
    6. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Sequential monitoring for changes from stationarity to mild non-stationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 209-238.
    7. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French Property," Working Papers 2014-47, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "Unit and Fractional Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Changes with an Application to the Brazilian Inf," Faculty Working Papers 19/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    10. Hany Abdel-Latif & Tapas Mishra & Anita Staneva, 2019. "Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    11. Teti̇k, Metin, 2020. "Testing of leader-follower interaction between fed and emerging countries’ central banks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    12. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    13. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2007. "Are The Real Exchange Rate Indices of Australia Non-Stationary in the Presence of Structural Break?," Economics Working Papers wp07-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    14. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    15. Hayashi, Naotsugu, 2005. "Structural changes and unit roots in Japan's macroeconomic time series: is real business cycle theory supported?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 239-259, April.
    16. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    17. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
    18. Mstislav Elagin, 2008. "Locally adaptive estimation methods with application to univariate time series," Papers 0812.0449, arXiv.org.
    19. Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-378, July-Aug..
    20. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Para Arzı; M2; Merkez Bankası; Para Politikası; ARMA; VAR; Money Supply; M2; Central Bank; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.