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Les leçons du mariage entre les modèles d’équilibre général calculable et la nouvelle théorie du commerce international

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  • Cockburn, John

    (Centre de recherche en économie et finance appliquées (CRÉFA), Université Laval)

  • Decaluwé, Bernard

    (Centre de recherche en économie et finance appliquées (CRÉFA), Université Laval)

  • Dostie, Benoît

    (Centre de recherche en économie et finance appliquées (CRÉFA), Université Laval)

Abstract

The new trade theory shows that taking into account imperfect competition and economies of scale can drastically modify our predictions concerning the impact of trade policy. However, despite the apparent importance of these phenomena and the extent of current trade liberalization in developing countries, there are extremely few empirical trade analyses which consider them. Further, we find that the principal exception to this rule is a study that contains a modelling inconsistency leading to a considerable overestimation of the pro-competitive effects of trade liberalization. We present in detail the theoretical foundations and the procedure to follow in consistently modelling imperfect competition in a traditional computable general equilibrium trade model. An illustration is then provided through an analysis of Tunisian trade policy options which indicates that very limited pro-competitive effects are to be expected from trade liberalization. La nouvelle théorie du commerce international démontre que la présence de concurrence imparfaite et d’économies d’échelle peut modifier de manière radicale les impacts de politiques commerciales. Toutefois, malgré l’ampleur apparente de ces deux phénomènes dans les pays en développement et les réformes commerciales qui y sont présentement appliquées, très rares sont les études empiriques qui en tiennent compte. De plus, nous montrons que la principale étude qui fait exception contient une incohérence de modélisation qui mène à une surestimation considérable de l’effet dit procompétitif de la libéralisation commerciale. Nous présentons en détail les fondements théoriques et la procédure à suivre pour une intégration cohérente de la concurrence imparfaite dans un modèle traditionnel d’équilibre général calculable. Le fonctionnement du modèle est ensuite illustré à travers une application à la Tunisie, application qui indique que l’effet procompétitif à espérer de la libéralisation commerciale y est faible.

Suggested Citation

  • Cockburn, John & Decaluwé, Bernard & Dostie, Benoît, 1998. "Les leçons du mariage entre les modèles d’équilibre général calculable et la nouvelle théorie du commerce international," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(3), pages 381-413, septembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:74:y:1998:i:3:p:381-413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown, D.K., 1993. "Properties of Applied General Equilibrium Trade Models with Monopolistic Competition and Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 321, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Jaime de Melo & David Roland-Holst, 2015. "An Evaluation of Neutral Trade Policy Incentives Under Increasing Returns to Scale," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 17, pages 367-383, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    3. Lucke, Bernd & Zotti, Jacopo, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of the Barcelona Initiative," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 837-854.
    4. Homma, Takashi & Kosugi, Takanobu & Mori, Shunsuke & Akimoto, Keigo & Yamamoto, Hiromi, 2004. "Development of a multi regional, multi sector economy-energy model for the assessments of climate change policy," Conference papers 331227, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    6. Fida Karam, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and the Skill Composition of Migrant Flows: the Case of Morocco," Working Papers 595, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Jan 2011.
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