IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/v64y1988i4p494-508.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Les taux de chômage canadien et américain dans les années 1980 : un test de trois hypothèses

Author

Listed:
  • McCallum, John

    (University McGill)

Abstract

In the absence of adverse price shocks, the neo-Keynesian Phillips curve states that wage settlements will be falling whenever unemployment exceeds its natural level. Yet Canadian wage settlements have been stable since 1984 despite very high levels of unemployment. Three possible explanations are investigated: a large increase in the natural unemployment rate, a non-linear Phillips curve, and "hysteresis". La courbe de Phillips keynésienne stipule qu’en l’absence de perturbations inflationnistes défavorables la croissance des salaires nominaux ralentit lorsque le taux de chômage excède son niveau naturel. Pourtant, depuis 1984, bien que le taux de chômage moyen ait été très élevé, les augmentations de salaire n’ont pas ralenti au Canada. Trois explications possibles de ce paradoxe sont envisagées : une augmentation sensible du taux de chômage naturel, la non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips, et un effet d’hystérésis sur le chômage.

Suggested Citation

  • McCallum, John, 1988. "Les taux de chômage canadien et américain dans les années 1980 : un test de trois hypothèses," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 64(4), pages 494-508, décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:64:y:1988:i:4:p:494-508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://id.erudit.org/iderudit/601466ar
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    3. John McCallum, 1987. "Unemployment in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 20(4), pages 802-822, November.
    4. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-620, September.
    5. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 19-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Willem H. Buiter, 1987. "The Right Combination of Demand and Supply Policies: The Case for a Two-Handed Approach," NBER Working Papers 2333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-125.
    3. Zwick, Thomas, 1999. "Innovations induce asymmetric employment movements," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-24, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Bassi, Federico & Bauermann, Tom & Lang, Dany & Setterfield, Mark, 2022. "Is capacity utilization variable in the long run? An agent-based sectoral approach to modeling hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 196-212.
    6. Moller, Joachim, 1990. "Unemployment and Deterioration of Human Capital: A Labour Market Model with Hysteresis Implications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 199-215.
    7. Moïse Sidiropoulos & Jamel Trabelsi, 2001. "Les chocs monétaires et la persistance du taux de chômage," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 41-47.
    8. Daniel Kienzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 371-396, September.
    9. Dutt, Amitava K. & Ros, Jaime, 2007. "Aggregate demand shocks and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-99, March.
    10. Franz, Wolfgang & Hofmann, Thomas, 1989. "Unemployment and stability of inflation: The concept of the NAIRU in an international perspective and an estimation for Germany using business survey data," Discussion Papers, Series II 87, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    11. R. F. Lucas, 1989. "The Bank of Canada and Zero Inflation: A New Cross of Gold?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(1), pages 84-93, March.
    12. Manimay Sengupta, 2009. "Unemployment duration and the measurement of unemployment," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 7(3), pages 273-294, September.
    13. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
    14. Daniel Kienzler & Kai Daniel Schmid, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Hysteresis in Potential Output," IMK Working Paper 116-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Manfred Füllsack & Simon Plakolb & Georg Jäger, 2021. "Predicting regime shifts in social systems modelled with agent-based methods," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 163-185, May.
    16. Veli YILANCI & Yilmaz OZKAN & Abdulkadir ALTINSOY, 2020. "Testing the Unemployment Hysteresis in G7 Countries: A Fresh Evidence from Fourier Threshold Unit Root Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 49-59, September.
    17. Ömer AKKUŞ & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2019. "Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis: The Most Fragile Five Developing Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    18. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Hysteresis," Economics Series Working Papers 250, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Ernesto Screpanti, 1996. "A Pure Insider Theory of Hysteresis in Employment and Unemployment," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 93-112, December.
    20. Michael Reutter, 2000. "Hysteresis in West German Unemployment Reconsidered," CESifo Working Paper Series 240, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:64:y:1988:i:4:p:494-508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Dostie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.