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Can political factors explain the behaviour of stock prices beyond the standard present value models?

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  • Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski

Abstract

This article documents that political factors can be linked to that part of stock prices which cannot be explained by the standard present value models. The nonfundamental component of stock market index appears to be significantly influenced by the political orientation of the president and his approval rating, election cycle and military conflicts. The findings presented here indicate that there is much more to the price formation process than the present value of future dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski, 2009. "Can political factors explain the behaviour of stock prices beyond the standard present value models?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(23), pages 1873-1884.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:19:y:2009:i:23:p:1873-1884
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100903166189
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    Cited by:

    1. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
    2. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 267-292, April.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
    4. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Brendan John Lambe & Alexandra Dias, 2020. "The Influence of General Strikes against Government on Stock Market Behavior," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 72-99, February.
    5. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    6. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    7. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    8. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2021. "Attention to the Election-Economics-Politics (EEP) Nexus in the Indian Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 13(1), pages 7-32, June.
    10. Sedef Sen & Murat Donduran, 2017. "Does stock market performance affect the government satisfaction rating in the UK?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 999-1009, November.
    11. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.

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