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On a Class of Alpha-stable Distributions and Its Applications in Estimating Market Risk

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  • Daniel Traian Pele
  • Vasile Nicolae Stanciulescu

Abstract

This paper uses a straightforward application of alpha-stable distributions for Romanian Stock Market, showing how a relatively simple implementation in the real world of a complex mathematical tool can be much more reliable in risk management than the classical Gaussian or log-normal distributions. In this paper we use a SAS macro for estimating the parameters of an alpha-stable distribution, using the time-series regression method from Kogon and Williams (1998). Using the Fast Fourier Transform, we estimate the probability density function, the cumulative distribution function and consequently, the VaR (99.5%) and TVaR (99%). For numerical illustration we are using daily logreturns of the BET Index; the measures of market risk, estimated on rolling windows using alpha-stable distributions and Gaussian distribution, are then compared to the actual logreturns of the BET Index. Numerical experiments show that using alpha-stable distributions for estimating VaR and TVaR can be a better alternative for managing the risk of financial assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Traian Pele & Vasile Nicolae Stanciulescu, 2015. "On a Class of Alpha-stable Distributions and Its Applications in Estimating Market Risk," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 7(2), pages 007-015, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfb:journl:v:07:y:2015:i:2:p:007-015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Weron, Rafal, 1996. "Correction to: "On the Chambers–Mallows–Stuck Method for Simulating Skewed Stable Random Variables"," MPRA Paper 20761, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    2. Weron, Rafal, 1996. "On the Chambers-Mallows-Stuck method for simulating skewed stable random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 165-171, June.
    3. Borak, Szymon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Weron, Rafał, 2005. "Stable distributions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-008, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Szymon Borak & Rafal Weron, 2010. "STABLEREGKW: MATLAB function to estimate stable distribution parameters using the regression method of Kogon and Williams," Statistical Software Components M429004, Boston College Department of Economics.
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