IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v5y2018i2p158-167.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect Analysis of Real Estate Price and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Study Based on China Macroeconomic Data

Author

Listed:
  • Liang Su
  • Li Lin
  • Shaozhen Chen
  • Lin Li

Abstract

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998, China's real estate market has been gradually marketized. A large number of demand-side purchases that were suppressed by the planned economy were released. The rapidly rising real estate prices affected the People's Bank of China's monetary policy through Tobin's Q and the financial accelerator. This paper establishes a VAR model to analyze the policy factors and find out ¡°land finance¡± has promoted the rise of real estate prices to a certain extent and the regulation of the real estate market lags behind; real estate prices can interfere with the effect of monetary policy which rising real estate prices increase the uncertainty of monetary policy. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions of the monetary policy and local fiscal revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Su & Li Lin & Shaozhen Chen & Lin Li, 2018. "Effect Analysis of Real Estate Price and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Study Based on China Macroeconomic Data," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 158-167, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:5:y:2018:i:2:p:158-167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/2930/3228
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/2930
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Schwartz, 2003. "Asset price inflation and monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Thakor, Anjan V, 1996. "Capital Requirements, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Bank Lending: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 279-324, March.
    3. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Guangzhong Cao & Changchun Feng & Ran Tao, 2008. "Local “Land Finance” in China's Urban Expansion: Challenges and Solutions," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 19-30, March.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    9. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
    10. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
    11. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    12. Kwon, Eunkyung, 1998. "Monetary Policy, Land Prices, and Collateral Effects on Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 175-203, September.
    13. Glenn R. Mueller & Keith R. Pauley, 1995. "The Effect of Interest-Rate Movements on Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 319-326.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramzi Tarazi & Mohammad Zahid Hasan, 2019. "The Effect of Economic and Fundamental Factors on the Australian Property Performance," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(2), pages 155-184.
    2. Yufei Cao, 2021. "Measuring systemic risk and dependence structure between real estates and banking sectors in China using a CoVaR‐copula method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5930-5947, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan G. Ahearne & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steven Scott MacDonald, 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2011. "The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 911-920, May.
    3. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    4. Elmer Sterken, 2005. "The Role of the Ifo Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 173-201, Springer.
    5. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    6. Robert Forster & Xiaojin Sun, 2024. "Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rates on Housing Returns: Evidence from an Interacted Panel VAR," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 477-504, October.
    7. Cheah, Siew Pong & Law, Siong Hook, 2017. "Roles of Housing Wealth and Financial Wealth in Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 51(1), pages 77-86.
    8. Qiuyi Yang & Youze Lang & Changsheng Xu, 2018. "Is the High Interest Rate Combined with Intense Deleveraging Campaign Desirable? A Collateral Mechanism under Stringent Credit Constraints," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Ben Mimoun, Mohamed & Boukhatem, Jamel & Raies, Asma, 2024. "Aggregate demand and inflation response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 592-612.
    10. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    12. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Signoretti, Federico M., 2014. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-174.
    15. Belke Ansgar & Dreger Christian, 2019. "Did Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound Affect Lending of Commercial Banks? Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 841-860, October.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 540, Boston College Department of Economics.
    17. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.
    19. Helena, BELTRAN & Alain, DURRE & Pierre, GIOT, 2004. "Volatility regimes and the provisions of liquidity in order book markets," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005015, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    20. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    21. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; real estate price; VAR; land finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:5:y:2018:i:2:p:158-167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.