IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v4y2017i1p149-168.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Volatility and Malawi¡¯s Tobacco Exports to The United Kingdom and The United States

Author

Listed:
  • Abel Mwanyungwe

Abstract

The availability and sources of foreign currency in Malawi have become the subject of prominent policy debates in the country in the recent past. Malawi, which traditionally relies on agriculture and foreign aid for foreign currency earnings and balance of payments support, has experienced a shortage of foreign currency. It is against this background that this paper examined the relationship between the responsiveness of Malawi¡¯s tobacco exports to the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (US) markets for the period between 1995 and 2011. The objectives of the study were to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on Malawi¡¯s tobacco export earnings to the UK and the US and to determine and compare the volatility coefficients between the two export destinations. Based on the GARCH modelling, the paper found that exchange rate volatility in Malawi varies over time. When there is market disequilibrium in the long run relationship for both markets, there are differences in the rapidity of adjustments relating to the exchange rate volatility coefficient, but these are not significant. For example, the error correction term for tobacco exports to the US is -0.2389, while the error correction term for tobacco exports to the UK is -0.2341. This means that there is a relatively faster recovery in the disequilibrium for the tobacco exports to the US than that experienced for the UK market. Given these findings, it is important for researchers and policy makers to pursue appropriate exchange rate policies that will promote exchange rate volatility in Malawi, since the results show that exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on tobacco exports. Hence, the monetary authorities should pursue free and floating exchange rate policies to achieve exchange rate volatility. In addition, authorities should pay particular attention to the collusive behaviour of tobacco buyers, in order to avoid price fixing at the auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel Mwanyungwe, 2017. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Malawi¡¯s Tobacco Exports to The United Kingdom and The United States," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 149-168, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:149-168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/1884/2151
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/1884
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    2. Myint Moe Chit, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: evidence from the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 261-277.
    3. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
    4. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    5. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    6. Mwasikakata, Michael., 2003. "Tobacco an economic lifeline?: The case of tobacco farming in the Kasungu Agricultural Development Division, Malawi," ILO Working Papers 994869333402676, International Labour Organization.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:486933 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
    9. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    10. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
    11. Bamba, Ibrahim & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Monetary Policy Impacts on Cash Crop Coffee and Cocoa Using Structural Vector Error Correction Model," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20056, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Ekrem Erdem & Saban Nazlioglu & Cumhur Erdem, 2010. "Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(6), pages 537-543, November.
    13. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    14. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    15. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    16. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries Econometric Analysis," Working Papers EMS_2004_02, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and US commodity trade with the rest of the world," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 511-532.
    18. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie & Jooste, Andre & Alemu, A.G., 2007. "Measuring the Price Volatility of Certain Field Crops in South Africa using the ARCH/GARCH Approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(3), pages 1-17, September.
    19. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
    20. Doroodian, K., 1999. "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 465-474.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muteba Mwamba, John & Dube, Sandile, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 64389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    3. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    4. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    5. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    6. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    7. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    8. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    9. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    10. Anmar Pretorius & Heinrich Nel, 2018. "Disentangling the exchange rate risk, sectoral export flows and financial development nexus," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    11. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    12. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Linh T.D. Huynh & Hien Thanh Hoang, 2019. "Effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral import performance of Vietnam: A dynamic Generalised method of Moments panel approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 88-110, January.
    15. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    16. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    17. Lal, Madan & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Rai, Varun Kumar & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Determinants of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)countries global export trade: do foreign reserves and independent exchange rates matter?," MPRA Paper 12929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Şanlı, Devran, 2021. "Kırılgan Ekonomilerde Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi [The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Trade in Fragile Economies]," MPRA Paper 122698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; exports; volatility; monetary policies; error correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:149-168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.