IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rej/journl/v17y2014i52p77-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange rate Nexus: The Case of India

Author

Listed:
  • Srinivasan P.

Abstract

The paper investigates the causal nexus between gold price, stock price and exchange rate in India through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Granger Causality test. Using monthly time series data, the empirical analysis is carried out for the period from June 1990 to April 2014. Our analysis reveals that gold price and stock price tend to have long-run relationship with exchange rate in India. Besides, there is no evidence of stable long-run cointegration relationship among stock price and gold price in India. Our empirical findings also indicate that there exists no causality runs from gold price to stock price or vice versa in the short-run. It can be concluded that domestic gold price does not contain any significant information to forecast stock prices in India. The study findings are consistent with Kaliyamoorthy and Parithi (2012) where they found no evidence of causality between the gold price and stock price in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Srinivasan P., 2014. "Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange rate Nexus: The Case of India," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 77-94, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:17:y:2014:i:52:p:77-94
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rejournal.eu/sites/rejournal.versatech.ro/files/articole/2014-10-14/2982/5srinivasan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Mansoor Baig & Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Imran & Mehwish Jabbar & Qurat Ul Ain, 2013. "Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 28-39, October.
    2. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
    3. Toraman, Cengiz & Basarir, Cagatay & Bayramoglu, Mehmet Fatih, 2011. "Determination of Factors Affecting the Price of Gold: A Study of MGARCH Model," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 1-37, October.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. P.K. Mishra, 2014. "Gold Price and Capital Market Movement in India: The Toda–Yamamoto Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 37-45, March.
    6. Amalendu BHUNIA & Sanjib PAKIRA, 2014. "Investigating The Impact Of Gold Price And Exchange Rates On Sensex: An Evidence Of India," European Journal of Accounting, Finance & Business, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania - Faculty of Economics and Public Administration, West University of Timisoara, Romania - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11, February.
    7. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
    8. repec:icf:icfjaf:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:99-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Payesteh, Sayeed, 1993. "Budget deficits and the value of the dollar: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 661-677.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Cuong & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Komorníková, Magda & Komorník, Jozef, 2016. "Gold price and stock markets nexus under mixed-copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 283-292.
    2. Min Bai & Ly Ho, 2023. "How do gold and oil react to the COVID-19 pandemic: A review," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(7), pages 2876-2902, November.
    3. Rakesh Shahani & Aayushi, 2019. "Exploring Dynamic Linkages Between Inward FDI and India’s Economic Growth," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 8(2), pages 109-117, December.
    4. Albert Wong & Steven Whang & Emilio Sagre & Niha Sachin & Gustavo Dutra & Yew-Wei Lim & Gaetan Hains & Youry Khmelevsky & Frank Zhang, 2023. "Short-Term Stock Price Forecasting using exogenous variables and Machine Learning Algorithms," Papers 2309.00618, arXiv.org.
    5. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Khan, Farhad & Sharif, Arshian & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2023. "Dynamic linkages between Islamic equity indices, oil prices, gold prices, and news-based uncertainty: New insights from partial and multiple wavelet coherence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Ying & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Effects of non-ferrous metal prices and uncertainty on industry stock market under different market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Ashraf, Muhammad Sajjad & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "How the price dynamics of energy resources and precious metals interact with conventional and Islamic Stocks: Fresh insight from dynamic ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. S R, Shehnaz & S, Suresh Kumar, 2016. "Gold prices and Nifty – Unravelling of an intricately interwoven nexus," MPRA Paper 109184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hakan Oner & Hande Kilic Satici, 2020. "How does gold and oil price volatility affect Turkish financial markets?," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 262-270, July.
    10. Rakesh Shahani & Aastha Bansal, 2021. "An Econometric Investigation of Dynamic Linkages Between CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: A Case of India and China," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 10(1), pages 107-127, June.
    11. Mitra Lal Devkota, 2018. "The Dynamic Causality Between Stock Prices And Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence From Nepal," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 5-14, December.
    12. Saeed Rasekhi & Zahra Mila Elmi & Milad Shahrazi, 2016. "Price Bubbles Spillover among Asset Markets: Evidence from Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(4), pages 501-523, Autumn.
    13. Akbar, Muhammad & Iqbal, Farhan & Noor, Farzana, 2019. "Bayesian analysis of dynamic linkages among gold price, stock prices, exchange rate and interest rate in Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 154-164.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P. Srinivasan & M. Kalaivani, 2015. "Determinants of Foreign Institutional Investment in India: An Empirical Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(3), pages 364-376, June.
    2. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Siddiqi, Umema, 2021. "Estimating Long-Run Cointegration between Gold Prices and its Determinants," MPRA Paper 103182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    5. V. Chandran Govindaraju & Ramesh Rao & Sajid Anwar, 2011. "Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 203-219, August.
    6. Muhammad, Shahbaz & V G R, Chandran & Pervaiz, Azeem, 2011. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35103, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.
    7. Ang, James B., 2008. "What are the mechanisms linking financial development and economic growth in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 38-53, January.
    8. Narasingha Das & Partha Gangopadhyay, 2023. "Did weekly economic index and volatility index impact US food sales during the first year of the pandemic?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Arize, Augustine C., 2017. "A convenient method for the estimation of ARDL parameters and test statistics: USA trade balance and real effective exchange rate relation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 75-84.
    10. Baha Aldeen Mohammad Fraihat & Asma’a Al-Amarneh & Hadeel Yaseen & Miral R. Samarah & Bashar Younis Alkhawaldeh & Ola Buraik, 2023. "Trade Openness, Energy Consumption, and Financial Development Influence on Jordan’s Economy: Evidence from ARDL and Non-Granger Causality Test Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 659-665, November.
    11. Ferreira, Gustavo F.C. & Harrison, R. Wes, 2012. "From Coffee Beans to Microchips: Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Costa Rica," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 517-531, November.
    12. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    13. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Farooq, Abdul, 2013. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 87-94.
    15. ROY Subrata, 2020. "Gold & Stock Relation: Investors Reaction During Covid-19 Outbreak," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 72(3), pages 103-126, November.
    16. Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "Effects of financial development, economic growth and trade on electricity consumption: Evidence from post-Fukushima Japan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1073-1084.
    17. Hrushikesh Mallick, 2008. "Inflation and growth dynamics: the Indian experience," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 163-172.
    18. Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009. "Cointegration and the demand for gasoline," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3978-3983, October.
    19. Kafayat Amusa, 2013. "Savings and Economic Growth in Botswana: An Analysis Using Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(4), pages 200-209.
    20. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold Price; Stock Market; Causality; cointegration; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:17:y:2014:i:52:p:77-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Radu Lupu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.