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Budget deficits and the value of the dollar: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Payesteh, Sayeed

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the statistical relation between the U.S. budget deficits and the value of the dollar using cointegration and error-correction techniques. When quarterly data are used over the period 1971-1990, we find no evidence of cointegration. However, when we incorporate 1985 intervention in the foreign exchange market into cointegration analysis, we find strong evidence of cointegration between two variables. The error-correction models yield results that support bidirectional causality between the value of the dollar and budget deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Payesteh, Sayeed, 1993. "Budget deficits and the value of the dollar: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 661-677.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:15:y:1993:i:4:p:661-677
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Altin Tanku, 2006. "Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 57-69, March.
    3. Naledi C. Modisaatsone & G.R. Motlaleng, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Botswana`s imports," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 125-138.
    4. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    5. Younus, Dr. Sayera & Prince, Ehsanur Rauf, 2017. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Inflation, Trade Openness, and Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh and some Selected Emerging Countries," MPRA Paper 122190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Matiur Rahman & Muhammed Mustafa & Eldon Bailey, 1996. "US budget deficits, inflation and exchange rate: a cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 365-368.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & David Bernstein, 1999. "Exchange market pressure during the current managed float," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 585-588.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Rhee, Hyun-Jae, 1997. "Structural change in import demand behavior, the Korean experience: a reexamination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 187-193, April.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Mirzaie Aghdas, 2000. "The Long-Run Effects of Depreciation of The Dollar on Sectoral Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-61.
    10. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa & Michael Kurth, 1997. "Integration and causality in US mortgage and T-bond markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 445-447.
    12. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    13. Henri Atangana Ondoa, 2013. "Gouvernance et croissance économique en Afrique," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 130-147, June.
    14. Srinivasan P., 2014. "Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange rate Nexus: The Case of India," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 77-94, June.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.

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