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Probabilidad e incertidumbre, una aproximación desde la historia del pensamiento

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  • Mario García Molina

Abstract

La incertidumbre en sentido radical no es probabilística, pero como no hay una noción de probabilidad única esta definición general es insuficiente. El artículo presenta en forma histórica las definiciones equiprobabilista, frecuentista y bayesiana de la probabilidad y construye la definición de incertidumbre correspondiente. Muestra, además, que la noción de espíritus animales de Keynes explica la acción humana en un mundo social incierto.

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  • Mario García Molina, 2016. "Probabilidad e incertidumbre, una aproximación desde la historia del pensamiento," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(35), pages 101-122, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:18:y:2016:i:35:p:101-122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Davidson, 1978. "Money and the Real World," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-15865-2, December.
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