IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v5y1991i1p129-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Davidson

Abstract

Mainstream perspectives involving uncertainty presume that expectations are based on either a statistical analysis of past data, with market signals providing information about objective probabilities, or on subjective perceptions of these probabilities founded on the axioms of expected utility theory. Post Keynesians, following Keynes, have developed a different perspective, where probability distributions are not the basis for comprehending real world behavior under uncertainty. According to this analysis, there are many important situations where "true" uncertainty exists regarding future consequences of today's choices. Whenever conditions of true uncertainty prevail, human behavior may differ systematically from what is implied by the standard expected utility perspective. This paper explains how the Post Keynesian perspective differs from the orthodox probability theory approach, thereby providing a more general theory which can explain long-run decisions regarding liquidity demands, investment decisions, the existence of long period underemployment equilibrium, the long-run nonneutrality of money, and the unique and important role Keynes assigned to nominal contracts and especially the money wage contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:5:y:1991:i:1:p:129-43
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.5.1.129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.5.1.129
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greg Davidson & Paul Davidson, 1996. "Economics for a Civilized Society," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-37487-4.
    2. J.-M. Grandmont & G. Laroque, 1977. "On Temporary Keynesian Equilibrium," International Economic Association Series, in: G. C. Harcourt (ed.), The Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 41-61, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Paul Davidson, 1992. "International Money and the Real World," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-37809-4, October.
    4. Paul Davidson, 1978. "Money and the Real World," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-15865-2.
    5. Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-154, Summer.
    6. Solow, Robert M, 1985. "Economic History and Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 328-331, May.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1981. "Tobin and Monetarism: A Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 558-567, June.
    8. Tony Lawson, 1988. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 38-65, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arena, Richard, 1992. "Une synthèse entre post-keynésiens et néo-ricardiens est-elle encore possible?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(4), pages 587-606, décembre.
    2. Sheila Dow, 2012. "Uncertainty-Denial," Department Discussion Papers 1204, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    3. Sheila C. Dow, 1999. "Post Keynesianism and Critical Realism: What Is the Connection?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 15-33, September.
    4. Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
    5. Fernando Carvalho, 1983. "On the Concept of Time in Shacklean and Sraffian Economics," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 265-280, December.
    6. L. Randall Wray, 1998. "The Development and Reform of the Modern International Financial System," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_225, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. J. Barkley Rosser, 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspective on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
    8. C. Sardoni & L. Randall Wray, 2007. "Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates and Currency Sovereignty," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_489, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Perez Caldentey, Esteban & Ali, Anesa, 2010. "Growth and convergence/divergence in productivity under balance-of-payments constraint," MPRA Paper 20056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hyman P. Minsky & Charles J. Whalen, 1996. "Economic Insecurity and the Institutional Prerequisites for Successful Capitalism," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, December.
    11. Franck Bessis & Guillemette de Larquier & John Latsis, 2009. "Are conventions solutions? Contrasting visions of the relationship between convention and uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04140883, HAL.
    12. Sunanda Sen, 2011. "The Global Crisis and the Remedial Actions: A Nonmainstream Perspective," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_677, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Termini, Valeria A., 1981. "Logical, mechanical and historical time in economics," MPRA Paper 24491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
    15. Marc Lavoie, 2001. "Endogenous Money in a Coherent Stock-Flow Framework," Macroeconomics 0103007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dominick Salvatore, 1998. "International Monetary and Financial Arrangements: Present and Future," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 375-416, January.
    17. Rogerio Andrade & Daniela Prates, 2013. "Exchange rate dynamics in a peripheral monetary economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 399-416.
    18. Colin Danby, 2000. "LDCs, Institutions, and Money," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 407-421, March.
    19. León Díaz, John Jairo, 2007. "Keynesianismo, Poskeynesianismo y Nuevokeynesianismo: ¿Tres doctrinas diferentes y una sóla teoría verdadera? [Keynesianism, PostKeynesianism and Newkeynesianism: ¿Three different doctrines just on," MPRA Paper 4600, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    20. Policy Analyst - UNICEF Zimbabwe, 2002. "Evidence on the demand for money function in Uganda," Development and Comp Systems 0210005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:5:y:1991:i:1:p:129-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.