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Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles

Author

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  • Fabio Kanczuk

    (University of Sao Paolo)

Abstract

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the quantitative relationship between real interest rates and output fluctuations in the Brazilian economy from 1980 to 2001. When firms are subject to working capital restrictions, the model is consistent with both the cyclical volatilities of national income components and the countercyclical character of real interest rates. Simulations indicate that output fluctuations are quite sensitive to the persistence of interest rate oscillations. Non-structural econometric estimations of the dynamic IS curve are, therefore, susceptible to the Lucas' critique, and may misguide the Central Bank's policymaking. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 436-455, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:436-455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2003.09.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Kanczuk & Laura Alfaro, 2012. "Carry Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    2. Aysun, Uluc, 2008. "Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 302-328, December.
    3. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
    4. Bosch, Mariano & Esteban-Pretel, Julen, 2012. "Job creation and job destruction in the presence of informal markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 270-286.
    5. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:3:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aysun, Uluc & Honig, Adam, 2011. "Bankruptcy costs, liability dollarization, and vulnerability to sudden stops," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 201-211, July.
    7. Suparna Chakraborty & Keisuke Otsu, 2012. "Deconstructing Growth - A Business Cycle Accounting Approach with application to BRICs," Studies in Economics 1212, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    8. André Nunes Maranhão & Nicole Rennó Castro, 2023. "Dissecting Brazilian agriculture business cycles in high-dimensional and time-irregular span contexts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1543-1578, October.
    9. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2010. "Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1706-1726, December.
    10. Carlos Roberto Azzoni & Eduardo Amaral Haddad, 2012. "Climate change and the future of regions," Chapters, in: Roberta Capello & Tomaz Ponce Dentinho (ed.), Networks, Space and Competitiveness, chapter 6, pages 137-148, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2019. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 261-287, June.
    12. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2009. "Debt Maturity: Is Long‐Term Debt Optimal?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 890-905, November.
    13. Túlio Cravo, 2011. "Are Small Firms more cyclically Sensitive than Large Ones? National, Regional and Sectoral Evidence from Brazil," ERSA conference papers ersa10p507, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Mariano Bosch & Julen Esteban-Pretel, 2009. "Cyclical Informality and Unemployment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-613, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Kanczuk, Fabio, 2013. "Um Termômetro para as Macro-Prudenciais," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    16. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:4:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2005. "World Interest Rate, Business Cycles, and Financial Intermediation in Small Open Economies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2011. "The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    19. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2015. "Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 675-696.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; working capital; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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