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Debt-stabilizing properties of GDP-linked securities: A macro-finance perspective

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  • Mouabbi, Sarah
  • Renne, Jean-Paul
  • Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume

Abstract

We study the debt-stabilizing properties of indexing debt to GDP using a consumption-based macro-finance model. To this end, we derive quasi-analytical pricing formulas for any type of bond/equity by exploiting the discretization of the state-space, making large-scale simulations tractable. We find that GDP-linked security prices would embed time-varying risk premiums of about 40 basis points. For a fixed budget surplus, issuing GDP-linked securities does not imply more beneficial debt-to-GDP ratios in the long-run, while the debt-stabilizing budget surplus is more predictable at the expense of being higher. Our findings call into question the view that such securities tame debt.

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  • Mouabbi, Sarah & Renne, Jean-Paul & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2024. "Debt-stabilizing properties of GDP-linked securities: A macro-finance perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0378426624000517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107131
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP-linked securities; Term structure; Consumption-based model; Markov-switching; Debt stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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