IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/psc/journl/v5y2013i3p163-183.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring Non-Performing Loans During (and After) Credit Booms

Author

Listed:
  • Dobromił Serwa

    (National Bank of Poland
    Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

In this study we evaluate the distortion of the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL) caused by rapid credit growth to show that the bias in this ratio (caused by the prolonged credit boom) may indeed be significant. Next, we discuss an adjustment to the NPL ratio based on a theoretical model of a loan portfolio. This adjustment is robust for credit booms and busts; therefore, it can be used to compare credit quality ratios across distinct portfolios and banks as well as to simulate future NPL ratio developments. Our estimates of the portfolio of housing loans in Poland show that the new adjusted index of non-performing loans is robust to different model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobromił Serwa, 2013. "Measuring Non-Performing Loans During (and After) Credit Booms," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(3), pages 163-183, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:163-183
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cejeme.eu/publishedarticles/2013-15-19-635230665380156250-4784.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The Up-Coming Crisis and the Banking Sector in the Baltic States," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 269-291, September.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Iftekhar Hasan & Larry D. Wall, 2004. "Determinants of the Loan Loss Allowance: Some Cross‐Country Comparisons," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 129-152, February.
    4. Meeker, Larry G. & Gray, Laura, 1987. "A note on non-performing loans as an indicator of asset quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 161-168, March.
    5. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    6. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-5.
    7. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
    8. Erik Heitfield & Tarun Sabarwal, 2004. "What Drives Default and Prepayment on Subprime Auto Loans?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 457-477, December.
    9. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    10. Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
    11. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
    12. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
    13. Lubomír Lízal & Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Investment, Credit Rationing, And The Soft Budget Constraint: Evidence From Czech Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 353-370, May.
    14. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
    15. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Revoltella, Debora & Mucci, Fabio, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2013. "Cyclical default and recovery in stress testing loan losses," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 139-149.
    17. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
    18. Hiroyuki Aman & Hironobu Miyazaki, 2009. "Valuation effects of new equity issues by banks: evidence from Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 635-645.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nderitu Kingori, 2016. "Market Structure, Macroeconomic Shocks, and Banking Risk in Kenya," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 1(2), pages 81-113, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grace Ofori-Abebrese & Robert Becker Pickson & Eric Opare, 2016. "The Effect of Bank Specific Factors on Loan Performance of HFC Bank in Ghana," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(7), pages 185-185, July.
    2. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
    3. Mr. Marco Arena & Serpil Bouza & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Lamin Njie, 2015. "Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/011, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    5. Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Capital Inflows and Booms in Asset Prices: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 8, pages 255-290, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Gutiérrez López, Cristina & Abad González, Julio, 2014. "¿Permitían los estados financieros predecir los resultados de los tests de estrés de la banca española? Una aplicación del modelo logit," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-70.
    7. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    9. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    10. MBelen Salas & Prosper Lamothe & Enrique Delgado & Angel L. Fernández-Miguélez & Lucia Valcarce, 2024. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans: A Global Data Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2695-2716, November.
    11. Varlik Serdar & Berument M. Hakan, 2016. "Credit channel and capital flows: a macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 145-170, January.
    12. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2014. "The Financial Resource Curse," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 58-86, January.
    13. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    14. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    15. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    16. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    17. Nimita Azam & Abdullah Mamun & George F. Tannous, 2022. "Credit derivatives and loan yields," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 205-241, February.
    18. Wagner, Charlotte & Winkler, Adalbert, 2013. "The Vulnerability of Microfinance to Financial Turmoil – Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 71-90.
    19. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "Bank regulations and surges and stops in credit: Panel evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Michal Rubaszek & Dobromil Serwa, 2011. "Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model," NBP Working Papers 92, Narodowy Bank Polski.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-performing loan ratio; credit boom; housing loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:163-183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Damian Jelito (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://cejeme.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.