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Des conséquences patrimoniales de la désinflation

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  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

[fre] La baisse rapide et forte du rythme de l'inflation que l'économie française vient de connaître a des conséquences patrimoniales : la suppression des transferts et des distortions causés par l'inflation modifie, pour chaque agent économique, la relation entre revenu, épargne et accumulation patrimoniale. Qu'en résulte-t-il pour l'activité économique ? . Les conséquences patrimoniales de la désinflation passent par quatre canaux. La réduction du seigneurage dont bénéficiaient les banques ne permet pas au taux d'intérêt de baisser comme l'inflation ; le taux d'intérêt réel s'élève donc. Du fait de l'inertie des frais financiers les agents endettés à long terme à taux fixe sont perdants. A situation inchangée, le nominalisme de la fiscalité entraîne une baisse de l'impôt sur les bénéfices, mais aggrave la hausse du taux d'intérêt réel. Enfin, l'inadaptation du formalisme comptable aboutit à ce que la comptabilité d'entreprise indique fictivement une dégradation du profit net, une amélioration de l'autofinancement et du ratio d'endettement. . Selon les conventions de la comptabilité nationale ce sont les entreprises (et à un degré moindre les administrations) qui gagnent à la désinflation, les perdants étant à court terme les ménages, à moyen terme les institutions de crédit. La prise en compte des plus-values sur actifs modifie complètement ce point de vue : ce sont les ménages qui sont gagnants. A court terme, ce sont les entreprises et les administrations qui perdent ; à moyen terme les institutions de crédit. . Considérés isolément les effets patrimoniaux de la désinflation devraient provoquer une relance de la consommation au détriment de l'investissement, tandis que l'Etat serait amené à pratiquer une politique budgétaire plus restrictive. Toutefois le formalisme comptable peut masquer la dégradation de la situation des entreprises et les ménages peuvent ne pas être conscients de leurs gains patrimoniaux. [eng] The strong and fast decrease of inflation rate, that French economy had just experienced, has large patrimonial consequences. Inflation brings about reallocations and destortions, the cancelling of which alters, for each economic sector, the relation between income, saving and patrimonial accumulation. What will result for economic activity ? . Patrimonial consequences of desinflation pass by four channels : the cutting down of the « seigniorage », which profited to banks, does not allow that interest rate decrease as much as inflation rate ; so real interest rate increases. By of interests payment inertia, the sectors in debt at fixed rates are at a loss. Ceteris partibus, the fiscal nominalism induces a decrease of taxes on income but worsens the increase of the real interest rate. At last, the misfitting of accounts concepts causes that the firms accounts show wrongly a fall of net profit, a rise of cash-flow and an improvement of debt ratio. . According to National Accounts concepts, the firms are the main winners and the administrations also win ; the losers are the households in the short run ; the financial sector in the medium run. To take into account the financial assets depreciation alter strongly this result : the winners are the households. The losers are the firms and the administrations in the short run, the financial sector in the medium run. . By themselves, the patrimonial consequences of desinflation would cause an increase of consumption prejudice to the detriment of capital formation ; in the same time, the government would be induced to restrain the fiscal policy. However, the accounting concepts may conceal the degradation of the firms situation and households may not be fully aware of their patrimonial earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Sterdyniak, 1986. "Des conséquences patrimoniales de la désinflation," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 17(1), pages 167-208.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1986_num_17_1_1076
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1986.1076
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1986.1076
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    1. Thierry Chauveau, 1983. "L'inflation et les entreprises," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(5), pages 897-925.
    2. Patrick Artus & Henri Sterdyniak, 1980. "Comportement des entreprises et modèles macroéconomiques," Post-Print hal-03602026, HAL.
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    1. Henri Sterdyniak, 1987. "Le choix des ménages entre consommation et épargne en France de 1966 à 1986," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 21(1), pages 191-210.
    2. CEPII & OFCE & Marie-Hélène Blonde & Gérard Cornilleau & Pascal Helwaser & Jacques Le Cacheux & Jean Le Dem & Henri Sterdyniak & Bill Robinson & Stephen Smith, 1990. "Vers une fiscalité européenne ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 31(1), pages 121-189.
    3. Hélène Baudchon & Valérie Chauvin, 1999. "Les cigales épargnent-elles ? Une comparaison des taux d'épargne français et américain," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 68(1), pages 127-164.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5246 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5246 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Patrick Artus & Florence Legros & Éric Bleuze & Jean-Paul Nicolaï, 1991. "Épargne des ménages, choix de portefeuille et fiscalité en France," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(4), pages 663-700.

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