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La désinflation en France : le point de vue de l'économètre

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  • Jean-Pierre Cling
  • François Meunier

Abstract

[eng] The french disinflation. . What are the factors of the french desinflation between 1981 and 1985, following the 1981 peak due to the second oil shock ?. The use of an econometric model based on the wage-price spiral provides an answer : by measuring the contribution of the exogenous factors to the price slowdown ; also by analysing the difference between the observed evolutions and the simulated ones which take into account the past behavourial relationships. One can notice an important effect of the new wage indexation implemented after the wageprice freeze in 1982 and a smaller influence of the price control policy. The slowdown of the imported. inflation (particidarly the fall in oil prices since 1983) accounts for half of the disinflation during the period. Other factors (farm prices, unemployment) had also an influence not to be neglected. [fre] La désinflation francaise. . Quels sont les facteurs de la désinflation française entre 1981 et 1985, après le pic de 1981 consécutif au deuxième choc pétrolier ? L'utilisation d'une maquette économétrique basée sur la boucle prix-salaires permet de répondre à cette question : en chiffrant la contribution des variables exogènes au ralentissement des prix, mais aussi en analysant les écarts entre les évolutions observées, et les évolutions simulées qui reprennent les comportements moyens observés sur le passé. On observe ainsi un effet important du nouveau mode d'indexation salariale mis en œuvre après le blocage clés prix et des revenus de 1982 et un rôle plus modeste de la politique des prix. Le ralentissement des prix importés (notamment la baisse du prix du pétrole, dès 1983) explique, d'autre part, la moitié de la désinflation au cours de la période ; enfin, d'autres facteurs explicatifs (prix agricoles, chômage) jouent aussi un rôle non négligeable.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Cling & François Meunier, 1986. "La désinflation en France : le point de vue de l'économètre," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1093-1125.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408958
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1986.408958
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1986.408958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ross, Stephen A & Wachter, Michael L, 1973. "Wage Determination, Inflation, and the Industrial Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 675-692, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
    2. Pierre Poret, 1990. "Les salaires dans les grands pays de l'OCDE au cours des années quatre-vingt," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 235(1), pages 3-15.

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